Scanning for good signs… maybe finding some…

Thursday, November 6, 2014 at 7:39 am


Dry weather will continue for now.  Perhaps some signs of change around mid-month?


Nothing new in the short term.  Ridging to dominate through the weekend with mostly sunny skies and warmer than normal temps.

Late Sunday into Monday we are still expecting a system to drop down the Rockies… This will take the bulk of its cold air and energy north and east of us.  Right now we’d probably see just cooler air and a few clouds.  If the models were to trend deeper and farther west over the next few days, there’s a chance we could see much colder air and a few snow showers.  Doubt that will happen, but there is a small chance.  Even so, it would be nothing major, just a few inches, mainly in the Uintas.

Long term:

Ridge is still progged to keep the west coast mostly dry into next week.  However, there are little signs that are starting to creep up that we may try to break down the ridge by mid-month.  The GFS brings a storm track back to at least the Pacific northwest by middle of next week and eventually digs the systems far enough south to give northern Utah some precip.  The ECMWF (Euro) has shown a system undercutting the ridge mid to late next week, bringing us some generally light precipitation.  Not sure I buy either one of these solutions right now, but they sure are better than seeing nothing but dominant ridging.  A few more runs of each model and we should be able to get a better sense for whether this potential pattern shift is real or not.

CFSv2 is the gold standard in long range coin flipping, and right now it is coming up positive for us for the second half of November.  Week 1 and Week 2 are bone dry for the west as you’d expect, but week 3 and week 4 brings above average precipitation back to the west coast (pictured below).



Let’s hope that’s correct!


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  • Steve

    I definitely realize it’s only one run, but the 18Z run of the GFs looks different.

    • Looks very close to last three runs of the EC… As always, catching on late… Haha

  • Tiny

    So where are we at this point? Average, below?