Still Waiting…

Wednesday, November 5, 2014 at 7:05 am


High pressure will keep Utah dry for the next week or more.


Continuation of dry, mostly sunny weather through the weekend.  Late on Sunday into Monday we’ll have a system dropping down the Rockies.  Yesterday this was farther west in the EC.  Today the EC and GFS are both fairly close to each other and clip northern Utah.  In their current solution, we’d likely get some clouds and a bit cooler temps early next week.  If they were to trend farther west (which is a distinct possibility) we could get much cooler temps and a few snow showers.  However, if they were to trend farther east (another distinct possibility), we could see nothing at all and continue on warm and totally sunny.

Long range:

The ridge generally is progged to hold strong through at least mid-month in most models.  The operational GFS continues to be the most aggressive in bringing storms into the west coast late next week, but even it only manages to bring us light precipitation and I’m not buying it.

The next 10 days are bone dry for Utah.  Here is the CFSv2’s forecast for precipitation nationwide for the next ten days:



Notice Utah sees virtually no precipitation.  However, the CFSv2’s forecast for the following 10 days (November 15-25) is far more optimistic:



Much better!  So while there is reason for hope, I wouldn’t get too excited, as this has yet to develop in the actual daily forecast models.  Even if it were in the long range models, the last time they showed a busy pattern, it failed to materialize.  For now, just find ways to enjoy the good weather we’ll have and hope that things get going here soon enough.

The other bit of news is that El Nino is strengthening again.  Current SST anomalies in the 3.4 region are +0.7C…. This is technically considered El Nino, but usually +1.0 or high is needed to feel the effects to their full extent.  Hopefully this will continue to increase and it will help kickstart a stormy pattern for the west coast into the Great Basin.


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