Eyes on November

Sunday, October 26, 2014 at 7:12 am


A weak system will bring scattered snow showers above 7,000 feet today along with much cooler temperatures. We will be dry for the rest of the work week.  A more potent system looking possible for next weekend.


Cold front moved through northern Utah overnight bringing a few light showers.  Radar indicates scattered snow showers are currently occurring in the Wasatch with a snow level around 8,000 feet.  Snow level should fall down to about 7,000 feet this evening as more cold air works its way into the area.  Overall, only a dusting to an inch of snow expected from this storm .

High pressure builds back in on Monday with clearing and warming.  We’ll head back above average for temperatures although we won’t be near the record highs we saw on Friday and Saturday (both records at SLC airport).   A storm system will pass well to our north on Wednesday but could increase clouds and breezes a bit.  Otherwise, tranquil weather will prevail.

Attention right now is on a system for next week.  This is the “cut-off” low I’ve mentioned the last couple days — only now, the cut-off isn’t nearly as cut-off.  Instead of cutting off, the Low is now just part of a deeply amplified trough.  This is good news because it provides more steering for the system to progress inland next weekend.  Right now, both the EC and GFS (and the Canadian GEM for that matter) show a decent system arriving in Utah next Sunday (11/2).  This is still a week away and it wouldn’t take much for the models to go back to the cut-off low idea, so let’s not get too excited.  But at least we’ll have a chance for a decent snow storm if all goes well.

Long range:

GFS and EC ensembles have been fairly consistent.  They show brief ridging after next weekend’s system, then show a large trough developing over the western states from about 11/6 onward.  Far too early to forecast any storms within this trough, but the signs are encouraging.


P.S.  I mentioned a few weeks ago that the ideal scenario for backcountry stability is for it to not snow at all in October, then for the skies to open up on November 1 and continue dumping for as long as we can stand it.  I didn’t really think this was likely because it is extremely rare for us to make it through October without building some type of base, especially on north aspects — but it looks like Step 1 of that plan is complete.   Now let’s just hope Mother Nature executes Step 2 in November!

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