Small storms are better than no storms…

Monday, October 20, 2014 at 7:16 am


A weak system will bring wind, a few rain showers, and a dusting of snow above 9,000 feet on Tuesday.  High pressure will warm us up for later in the week before another storm system impacts the area late in the weekend.


Things continue to look not nearly as bleak as they were looking just a few days ago.  With that said, there’s nothing major in the forecast either.  The storm on Tuesday is weakening and being pushed north of the area as it moves inland.  We’ll be left with the tail end of the remnants in a strong southwest flow.  Because of this, snow levels will be high.  A few inches will be possible above 9,000 feet with the highest amounts above 10K feet in the Uintas.

High pressure will dominate Wednesday thru Saturday with warm afternoon highs — well above normal.   The next system moves into Northern Utah on Sunday.  Models have latched on to fairly similar solutions.  This system will have a bit more energy to work with and will have colder air.  At this time, accumulations look modest, but it’s rare to get major snowfall in October so that’s not a surprise.   More details as we get closer to the weekend.

Long range:

Not much agreement at all in the long range, some ensembles try to ridge us back up as we head toward Halloween while others keep a progressive pattern going with more chances for storms.  Not much point trying to forecast yet…

CFSv2 long range model has spent most of the last month forecasting drier-than-normal conditions for California and the Great Basin during the month of November.  In the last few days, however, it has become significantly wetter:

Nov forecast

Hopefully this is an indication of an active pattern for the central west coast next month, as that would be ideal for Utah to get good early season base-building snowfall.  We’ll watch and see…



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