A cold front will cool Northern Utah down tonight and tomorrow with temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler on Sunday. A chance for a few valley rain showers and mountains snow showers will be possible. Storms retreat to the Pacific Northwest for most of next week.
We’ve got a cold front currently dropping into the Northern Rockies and heading down the Continental Divide toward Colorado. Utah is on the western edge of this cold front. This is going to severely limit our potential to see precipitation. As the cold front move through Sunday morning, expect high elevation snow showers in the northern Wasatch and especially the Uintas. Rain showers will be possible in valleys below 8,000 feet from time to time. Overall the main effect will be cooler temps, some 10-15 degrees cooler than today’s (Saturday).
Immediately following this cold front, we’ll be quick to warm up on Monday as a southwest flow develops as a trough digs off the PNW coast. By Wednesday this trough will be very prominent off the coast. Here is the EC for Wednesday, 10/15:
This should produce a good deal of precipitation for Oregon and Washington, unfortunately, the storm systems weaken and get forced generally to our north all week next week. The GFS has a similar pattern, but is slightly deeper and farther east, which would give us a chance for a few showers at times. The GFS, however, hasn’t been performing well so far this fall and my instinct is to go with the EC.
That means it’s looking unlikely for any snow next week in the Wasatch, but who knows, things can change in a hurry.
By next weekend, the EC pulls the trough even farther off the coast — keeping Utah dry and warm. The GFS model keeps the trough closer to the coast and therefore gives us continuing chances for storms. Therefore, not much certainty. Overall it looks like we’ll have to wait until late in October to start building a base, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.