Pattern change looking likely…

Tuesday, October 7, 2014 at 8:05 am

Update, Wednesday AM:

Nice weather to continue for the next few days before a pattern shift takes place.  Cooler air will work its way into the area by Sunday with a chance for a few showers (mountain snow showers).  Next week will be unsettled and cooler than this week but there is still a lot of disagreement between models.  I’m not convinced of any specific solution — we could potentially just see clouds and cooler temps, or we could see a decent storm system or two.  Hopefully we’ll get a little more agreement in the coming days.

Remember, as mentioned previously, Autumn is a transition season and models are notoriously bad at picking up pattern changes this time of year.  Luckily, if we don’t get any snow next week, it’s not necessarily a bad thing as we reduce the risk of having a weak base layer for the rest of the season.




Beautiful, tranquil weather to continue into this weekend.  As we head into next week, a pattern change will bring a chance for mountain snow back to northern Utah.


The last 6 days has been nothing short of spectacular.  After a cold front and a few inches of snow above 8,000 feet last week (pictured), we’ve had 6 days of warm, crystal clear weather — perfect for leaf peeping.

Big Cottonwood Canyon, Utah, October 1, 2014

Big Cottonwood Canyon, Utah, October 1, 2014

The beautiful Fall weather will continue through the rest of this week, and Fall colors remain near peak in most mountain areas.  So get out and enjoy it if you haven’t already!

Things start to change this weekend into next week, however the two major models (GFS and ECMWF) show slightly different solutions, but both eventually bring a major pattern change into the area.  

On Sunday the EC shows an amplified pattern with a large ridge over the west coast, with a deep trough over the central US.  This puts Utah in between.  In this pattern Utah would see cooler air with a slight chance for a few showers.  

ECMWF - Sunday 10/12

ECMWF – Sunday 10/12

The GFS, however, has a different solution in which the storm pattern moves more directly from west to east (less amplified).  This would be not as cool, but perhaps offer a better chance for precipitation in northern Utah.

GFS - Sunday 10/12

GFS – Sunday 10/12

By the middle of next week, both models agree on a deep, cold trough dropping into the western states, including Utah.

ECMWF - Tuesday 10/14

ECMWF – Tuesday 10/14

GFS - Tuesday 10/14

GFS – Tuesday 10/14

This is still over a week away, but it would mean colder weather and a good chance for valley rain and mountain snow.  It looks like a pattern change is inevitable and if we can get some larger storms in here, it might be the beginnings of a permanent base that will carry us into the winter.





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