July is over… Another hot summer month in the books and another step closer to flakes flying once again in the mountains of Utah. So far, however, this summer has been MUCH cooler than last–much to the relief of almost all of us. In 2013, the SLC airport had seen some 18+ days with highs in the triple digits by the end of July as compared to just 2 days so far in 2014. From here on out, temps start to cool as the days continue to get shorter.
After a rainy start to the week, we are in a bit of a dry period. There is still enough moisture in the air for clouds and perhaps a shower in the mountains during the afternoon today and on Saturday. Another strong moisture surge is progged by all models to move into the area late Sunday through Tuesday of next week. We could see significant summer rainfalls once again during this period, with afternoon storms perhaps lingering through the rest of next week. If you remember back to the beginning of summer post, we talked about the forecast for this summer to have a stronger-than-normal monsoon. It took awhile to develop, but it seems that forecast is coming to fruition now.
El Nino update:
Sea Surface Temps have actually been cooling as of late, with the latest ONI actually slightly below normal. There are several theories as to why this is occurring, but one thing’s for sure, it is not what models were forecasting back in May. With that said, models continue to suggest that El Nino will still develop during the fall months. It looks as though our chances of a strong El Nino developing are now slim to none. If we do have an El Nino event, it will be of the weak to moderate variety.
As for how these developments affect us, there’s really no change for Northern Utah as El Nino usually brings equal chances for above/below normal precipitation. However, it might not be good news for Southern Utah and the desert southwest, which were banking on a good El Nino event to mitigate drought conditions.
Still plenty of time before the resorts open and therefore plenty of time for oceanic and atmospheric conditions to evolve… As always, we’ll keep an eye on it all for you.