A strong cold front will pass through the area later today. Ahead of the front, strong winds will continue this morning. Snow will fill in by late morning in mountains of Northern Utah. Snow will continue heavy at times all afternoon before tapering off during the late evening hours. Total accumulations of 5-10″ can be expected above 7,000 feet. Next system rolls in Monday night and continue through Wednesday.
Front is slowly working its way closer to us — currently pulling up warm advection moisture as well as wind. Windy conditions will likely continue to exist through to morning hours ahead of and along the cold front. Winds will finally calm down this afternoon behind the front. Snow will start to fill in gradually through the morning. By this afternoon, heavy snow should be falling in the Wasatch. Snow levels will start out above 6,000 feet but will quickly lower this evening, likely dropping below 5k feet.
Snow will start to taper off during the evening hours. The short duration of this event is going to limit amounts to about 5-10″. Today will be a good day to spend your afternoon skiing rather than getting up there early. Monday morning should be very good as well!
Monday will be a break day with clouds and winds starting to increase again in the afternoon. Snow will move in late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. This is a deep, cold, and slow-moving trough. Models don’t put down quite as much qpf as they did yesterday, but still it should be a good system.
Let’s look at the NAM qpf graph for Alta:
I tend to think these graphs overdo things just a touch, but you can see it has snow accumulating over 10″ in the Upper Cottonwoods later today with an additional 15″ or so on Tuesday. For right now, I think the safe forecast for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm is 6-12″ with possibly a foot or more in places.
Another break late Thursday and Friday. EC has the next system moving in on Saturday while the GFS holds off until Sunday. Either way, this system looks fairly weak.
Models generally have been trending us toward ridging next week… finally. GFS is more short-lived with the ridging while the EC keeps it around through the extent of its run. No point worrying about the details this far out . . .
P.S. Our front today stalled over the Northern Sierra yesterday and push a strong pacific moisture tap over the same area with heavy snow all day yesterday. Snowfall rates exceeded 3″/hr at times. Here is an image of Sugar Bowl along I-80 in NorCal where 2.5 to 3.5 feet of snow fell since yesterday AM. The snow on the tables is what fell since close of lifts yesterday afternoon…