Hits keep coming!

Thursday, March 27, 2014 at 7:10 am


Cold core of the trough moves through today with periods of snow in the mountains through this evening.  3-8″ expected today with the highest totals likely in the Cottonwoods.  Break on Friday and Saturday before the next systems moves in late Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Sunday Powder Day!  Another system likely for next Tuesday.


Yesterday’s cold front moved through exactly how expected — which is to say there wasn’t a lot to it.  Snow fell for a few hours in some locations and then we saw convective snow showers later in the day.  Due to the “popcorn” nature of convection, snow reports this morning are highly varied.  Generally, 3″ or less fell in the mountains north of SLC as well as Park City mountains.  However, the Cottonwoods are reporting 5-8″ with 6″ fresh at Sundance and Brian Head.  The big winner yesterday was Eagle Point in central Utah, which is reporting 13″ of fresh snow!

As mentioned yesterday, today is the day of the real activity.  Snow is already developing, here is a look at the current Snowbasin snowstake cam:



The snow should continue to spread and intensify this morning before finally tapering off later this evening.  Snow amounts today should generally be in the 3-8″ range with the highest totals in orographically favored areas like the Cottonwoods. Also, areas East and Southeast of the GSL could see lake enhancement this afternoon.

Daytime heating and atmospheric instability will once again combine today to bring the threat of thunderstorms to the area.  Don’t rule out the possibility of a brief lightning hold at your local resort this afternoon.  This could also lead to some very intense precipitation intensity rates at times.

We start to clear out tonight and into tomorrow and will have a break through the day Saturday.  Clouds and southwest winds will increase later on Saturday ahead of the next system.  This system looks good to move in after midnight on Saturday night and last through the morning hours on Sunday.  It is a fast-moving front but is looking to pack quite a punch.  Right now I think a quick 4-8″ is likely, but would not be surprised if certain areas saw more than this.  Sunday Funday for sure!

Another break on Monday before the next system rolls in by Tuesday.  This is a cold and deep trough that will likely affect the entire state.  More mountain and possibly valley snowfall!

Long range:

Models generally keep the pattern active for the foreseeable future although there are differences in timing.  Both the GFS and EC have another system late next week (Friday or Saturday).

I’ve brought up the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) countless times this winter because it is my belief that it is the most important indicator in forecasting long-range trends during ENSO neutral years.  MJO is finally in favorable phases now, and should stay that way for at least the next two weeks.  Hopefully that means a continuation of frequent storm through mid-April.  Don’t put your powder boards away just yet!


P.S.   Thank you so much to those of you who have donated over the past few days!  Each and every donation is appreciated.  Some of you included notes of very kinds words which are equally appreciated.  If you are unable to donate, that is fine, I’m still happy to provide the service for free.  If you have yet to donate and would like to, you can do so by clicking HERE.

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  • David

    Just donated…..I rely on your website tremendously. Thank you for all of your effort and invaluable information.

  • Kris

    Do you anticipate Powder will be good today, or is snowbird the place to be??

  • Steve

    Any thoughts on April 5-11? GFS seems to be all over the place. Or is that the answer. Who knows until some kind of consensus.

    • ECMWF is looking mighty fine for at least the beginning of that period with a deep, cold trough in the 12z run.

  • pen fifteen club co founder

    The Bird is Always The Word!

  • Steve

    I like deep cold troughs. Thanks Steve