Wednesday PM update:
Huge double rainbow on my drive home today! A band of convective showers passed through northern Utah between 6 and 8 pm and cleared out just as the sun was setting over the Oquirrh’s. Made for a spectacular full-arch double rainbow. Can’t help but think it’s foreshadowing for things to come… 😉
Everything went according to plan today. Front passed through late this morning and brought 1-4″ of snow to the mountains of Northern Utah. Scattered showers this afternoon added another inch or two. Occasional showers will continue overnight before the next wave moves in tomorrow morning. Snow should be widespread throughout the mountains of Northern Utah tomorrow with accumulations of 4-8″ during the day and perhaps another couple inches Thursday night. Should make for excellent storm day riding tomorrow! *cough*cough* “Boss, I’m sick!’, you’ll say before you lose cell phone coverage driving up the canyon.
Perhaps even more exciting is that the models are in good agreement that the hits keep on coming. Saturday night/Sunday morning storm still looking good for at least 4-8”. Another strong storm for Tuesday and GFS is now in line with the EC for another system late next week. That’s 4 decent looking systems in the next 9 days! And there’s a good chance for more storms beyond that. I told you there was a reason I kept ranting about how important the MJO would be this season, it just took us 4 months to finally get it to move into favorable phases! Enjoy!
Initial cold front will move through the area this morning, bringing a period of snow to the mountains. Snow showers will linger this afternoon but accumulations will be light. Better organized portion of the system moves in tomorrow (Thursday) with heavier accumulation. Thursday and Friday will be the best powder days with this storm. Next storm moves in Saturday night for a potential Sunday powder day! Another storm next Tuesday!
Winter is back! Cold front just now approaching the area. As seen on this satellite image:
This cold front does not have a ton of moisture or dynamics associated with it. A brief period of snowfall later this morning in the mountains and then scattered snow showers this afternoon. Only expecting a few inches accumulation today at best. Today is NOT the day for skiing as it will likely be dust on crust. To illustrate this, here is a map of forecasted accumulations through about midnight tonight:
Only light accumulations (1-3″) in the northern mountains with perhaps up to 4 or 5 inches in the mtns of S. Utah.
The next more organized disturbance moves in during the day tomorrow with widespread snowfall redeveloping. Thursday should be very good storm day skiing as long as the current forecast holds. Snow will start to end Thursday night, but there will still be enough of it to make Friday a good first chair powder day as well. Take note: Thursday and Friday are the days to be “sick” 😉 . Here is the same map for snowfall, but now showing through Friday AM:
Notice the areas of pink over the northern mountains now? That indicates areas of a foot or more of snowfall.
Therefore, the official forecast remains 6-12″ of new snow from now until Friday AM, however, I would not be surprised to see more in favored locations like the Cottonwoods. The GSL will also be a factor as lake temps have risen dramatically, so the introduction of cold air should be able to provide at least lake-enhanced snowfall Southeast of the lake on Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday we will clear out for perhaps a nice bluebird day. Saturday we will remain clear, however winds and clouds should be on the increase throughout the day. The next cold front will move into Northern Utah late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. This system is fast-moving but looks fairly strong on the current models. It could be good for a quick 4-8″ (perhaps more?) that will make Sunday a Fun Day!
The hits keep on coming next week with another storm moving in on Tuesday. Still early to get into any details on this system quite yet. GFS then tries to build in a ridge late next week and give us a break in the action whereas the ECMWF has another system moving in late next week. Still plenty of time for the models to figure it out, so no point worrying about it now.
Going into this upcoming storm cycle, here is where our numbers sit:
We’ve fallen about 3-5% over the last week dry spell. However, I anticipate that we’ll gain 5-10% in the next 7 days as long as these storms deliver. If we have an active April, there is still a chance that all of Northern Utah can finish the season above normal. I don’t think there’s much chance for that for Southern Utah, but at least their numbers can look a bit more respectable.
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