Warm and sunny today with temperatures in the 60s in the valleys with 40s at ski resorts. Even warmer tomorrow, but clouds and winds will start to increase by the afternoon ahead of the next system. BIG changes on Wednesday with snow falling in the mountains and rain/snow mix in the valleys. Snow will linger into Thursday before ending. Both Wednesday and Thursday have potential to be very good ski days.
High pressure continues to dominate. Today will be nearly perfect with warm temps and sunny skies. Things begin to change tomorrow as warm southerly winds and clouds start to stream into the area ahead of the next system. The warm winds will boost temps further with most valleys seeing highs of 70 or higher!
By Wednesday morning, the front will be moving through Northern Utah. Models are about 8-12 hours faster with this front than they were 24 hours ago. This significantly impacts skiing as it no longer means Thursday is definitely the day to go. Snow will start falling early on Wednesday and last through most of the day. This will make Wednesday an excellent storm skiing day.
A bit of a break Wednesday night before another wave brings snow back on Thursday. Thursday should also be a very good ski day with a softer, fresher base than on Wednesday.
Right now it looks like 4-8″ is likely on Wednesday with an additional 2-4″ on Thursday. That will bring storm totals to 6-12″ with the possibility for a bit more in favored locations like the Cottonwoods.
Here is the latest NAM qpf through Thursday:
You can see the mountains just west of Tahoe should see plenty of much needed snowfall (2+ feet possible). We don’t see nearly as much in the Wasatch but .5-1″ of liquid still looks good for the previously mentioned 6-12″ of snow.
We clear out by Friday with another warm and sunny weekend on tap. Models continue to struggle with the timing of the next system. EC brings precip to the area as soon as Sunday night while the GFS holds off until at least Monday. What does seem clear is that the active pattern will continue into next week with more chances for POW!
Active pattern looks to continue at least through the first week of April, although models struggling mightily with the details. MJO has weakened but is still in favorable phases and it is my opinion that this is the main driver of this pattern change back to active weather. We will continue to monitor it and keep you informed and ready to shred!
P.S. Whether we like it or not, the season is starting to draw to a close. If you’ve been happy with the service provided by WSF this winter, please consider donating to the cause. Obviously, waking up early and scouring Wx resources to bring you a detailed forecast takes a tremendous amount of time and effort. These discussions will always be free, however, donations do help me justify to my wife why it’s worth getting up at 5am every day to look at weather models. Even just a few bucks will be very much appreciated! Thanks again!
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