It’s coming

Monday, February 24, 2014 at 8:24 am

Summary:

Snow on the way for the high elevations of Utah starting Thursday, but we’ll see a couple more days of mild weather first.

Details:

Mild, Spring-like temperatures continue over the state today.  However weak disturbances passing to our north will keep periods of cloudiness through Wednesday.

Amplified ridge overhead is going to begin to be undercut on Wednesday with the first system pushing into Northern California.  This system will progress eastward across the Great Basin and into Utah by midday Thursday.  Models have been remarkably consistent over the past several days with this system and the following system.  Right now it looks like snow levels will run around 6,500 feet.  So while the snow won’t be typical Utah fluff, it won’t be as wet as some of the previous systems we’ve seen either.

Friday will be a break between systems before then next storm moves in on Saturday morning.  This system is even stronger and more moist than the first.  However there are some fears that the best energy will pass to our south.  It will take some watching, but at the very least we should get at least some additional snow in Northern Utah.

As for snow amounts,  the Thursday system looks like it will leave us with the chance for 8-16″ of snow above 7,000 feet in the Wasatch.   This is of course assuming that current trends hold.  The next system for Saturday is still 5+ days away, and therefore pushing the limits of what I feel comfortable forecasting amounts.  But at this time it looks like it could drop as much, or more snow than the first storm as long as it doesn’t split too severely.  We’ll have to keep an eye on guidance over the next two days and watch for signs of splitting.  Bottom line: All of Utah has a good chance to see decent rain and mountain snow Thursday – Sunday of this week.

Long range:

Differences emerge in the models early next week.  The EC brings another, albeit weak, system into the area late Monday into Tuesday while the GFS holds off on our next system until around Thursday March 6.  We’ll have to wait and see what consensus the models finally find for next week.

WSF





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8 thoughts on “It’s coming

  1. DanSchulof

    Can you give any guidance as to how these storms will hit Jackson, WY? I’m part of a little group heading up there on Friday night. Thanks for all you do. This blog is priceless.

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