Cold One Coming Our Way

Tuesday, February 18, 2014 at 7:16 am


One more day of dry weather today before the next system moves in tomorrow (Wednesday). Snow will begin Wednesday morning and last through the evening hours, tapering off by Thursday morning.   Accumulations of 4-8″ with up to a foot in favored locations like the Cottonwoods is likely.  A few weak additional impulses through Saturday could keep snow showers around.  High pressure returns for early next week.


Today will feature dry weather, but a general trend of increasing clouds and breezes will prevail in advance of a cold front for tomorrow.

The next system will move into Utah tomorrow morning with snow spreading south throughout the day.  This is a cold storm and snow levels should drop to valley floors by the afternoon.  Snow will continue through the day, and likely into the evening hours before turning showery overnight and ending by Thursday morning.  As mentioned previously, this is a cold storm and we will return to seeing “The Greatest Snow on Earth”.  The system does lack a bit in moisture and will be moving fairly quickly, which will limit amounts.  However, 4-8″ seems reasonable for the high elevations with up to a foot in areas favored by a northwest flow like the Cottonwoods.  There is a slight chance of lake effect or enhanced snowfall southeast of the GSL.  Lake to air temperature differential is marginal for good lake effect bands, so don’t think it’s likely, but worth watching.

Overall, Wednesday will be great storm day skiing/riding while Thursday should be post-storm goodness! Get some!

A break on Thursday before another weaker front pushes into far northern Utah Friday.  This system, which was looking much better a few days ago, now looks only to be a grazer with just a few inches of snow, primarily north of I-80.  Clouds and another weak impulse will pass by on Saturday before we start to clear out by Sunday.

High pressure looks like it will dominate through most of next week with temperatures soaring well above normal.  Spring skiing!

Long range:

All global models continue to indicate the ridge breaking down by the end of the month.  Both the GFS and EC have the first storm moving into the region around Friday, February 28th.  Both models then suggest more systems beyond that into the first week of March.  This is all 10+ days away and, as always, is subject to change.  But at this point, it appears our dry spell will be short-lived before we return to winter.

This is where snowpack numbers currently stand:



Northern Utah still near normal with 85-95% in the Central Wasatch.  Southern 2/3 of the state still lagging behind.  Wouldn’t expect these numbers to change too much between now and the end of the month.  If the early March storm cycle does well for us, we could catch up to average quickly!


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  • Lee


    What are your thoughts on best sick day for this upcoming storm? Is this going to be a late morning storm tomorrow or will it hit before the lifts open?

    Thanks for everything you do.

  • Depends on where you’re asking? For the Cottonwoods/PC, it will start right around lift opening. Tough call on what is the better day. Wednesday should keep getting better but first tracks Thursday could be great!

    • Lee

      Ill be in little cottonwood. Hmm, making my decision hard. Thanks… Maybe just be sick both days…

      • Yeah, sorry, tough call. I’d probably pick Wednesday. Might not be as deep, but it will be free refrills for much of the day. Thursday would be good for first few chairs but will start to get tracked out.

  • Jake

    Which is more favored in NW flow, BCC or LCC?

    • They are both favored, but generally I’d say LCC does slight better during NW flows and BCC does slightly better during SW flows.

  • pen fifteen club co founder

    Wednesday should be fun but hope you like storm skiing!

  • tiny

    LCC is south of BCC but it does better during NW flows and visa versa? Weird, it seems like it would be the other way around.

    Any suggestions on rituals I need to be doing in order to get that ridge to breakdown earlier next week?

    • Doesn’t have to do with where they are located relative to each other, has more to do with the topography of the terrain. As for rituals, everybody has their own. Find one that works for you 😉

  • star

    bottom line is…. dust on crust…not utah’s best… set-up

  • Luke

    Any further comments on southern Utah for this storm? I am about to cancel my hotel at Brian Head based on what I’m reading. Was supposed to ride Fri and Sat but looks like no freshies for them except for a small chance Wed night.

    • Afraid not Luke. General trends the last few days have been to keep the precip north of I-70. Brian Head could get an inch or two Wednesday night, but that looks like it’s only real shot at fresh snow until the end of the month.

  • Luke

    I figured. Its been a losing battle for us powder chasers in So Cal this year. Everything within an 8 hour drive is basically a washout, and trying to score pow in N. Utah on short notice is risky, costly, and time consuming ordeal. Great reporting, anyway. Thanks.

    • Latest model trends have looked good for SoCal during the first week of March. Very good news just to mitigate drought problems.