Happy Presidents Day

Monday, February 17, 2014 at 7:20 am


Quiet weather today and tomorrow with mild temperatures.  Next system arriving Wednesday.  Another weaker system for Thursday night/Friday.  High pressure returns next weekend.


Our “quick hitter” from yesterday did exactly as expected — provided a quick burst of snowfall in the afternoon.  As mentioned yesterday, it had enough instability to generate a few lightning strikes.  Got a couple reports of resorts going on thunderhold while storms passed.  Accumulations were in the 3-5″ range for the Central Wasatch.  Just enough to soften the snow.  If you were in the mountains yesterday, then you could probably attest that this snow was needed.  The high water content of our previous storms and a couple days freeze/thaw cycle had turned the snow to boilerplate.  It needed a softening.  Unfortunately, the front seemed to skip PowMow/Snowbasin, both of which aren’t reporting any fresh snow.

A break in the action today and tomorrow with quiet weather.  Temperatures should be mild.  Breezes will start to increase tomorrow along with a few high clouds in advance of our next system.

This is a more typical Utah system — a cold trough digging out of the northwest rather than a system pulling moisture from the tropics.  That means snow levels will quickly fall to valley floors and snow density should be around 5-7%, which is about average.  Snow should start during the morning on Wednesday and continue through the day into the evening and possibly overnight hours.  Good dynamics, decent moisture, and plenty of cold air should set up well for us to get decent snowfall totals.  The one thing lacking is duration — as most of the snow should fall in a 12-hour window.  Right now it looks like 6-12″ is likely with the possibility for more if things continue to look good in later model runs.  Thursday should be a good powder day!

Thursday will be a break before the next front moves into the area.  Unfortunately, this front has been trending weaker.  Rapidly strengthening high pressure to our southwest will be trying to push this system north and east of us, cutting off the moisture supply as it does so.  Right now it looks like it’s just going to graze northern Utah with light additional amounts on Friday.

High pressure builds in strong by the end of the weekend into early next week…

Long range:

High pressure still looks likely through early next week.  However, both the EC and GFS try to break down the high pressure before the end of the month.  Here is a look at heights next Wednesday:



High pressure will be going strong over the West with deep troughing in the Eastern Pacific.  A few days later on March 1:



Notice the lower heights progress inland and over Utah and the rest of the western US.  Hopefully this will open up our storm door.  EC deterministic run and GFS operational run both reflect this idea with a storm pushing toward us right at the end of the month.


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  • tiny

    So boiled down, there is a storm chance the end of next week?

    • Correct… A chance next Friday into the first weekend of March… but it’s too far out to say anything other than “chance”.

      • Sam

        have the models changed?

        I was looking at weather.com early and Mon – Wed was 0% chance of anything wet. now it’s all showing 10 – 30%?

        I’ve got no idea how quickly the prediction for something like Weather.com are done and how much of this model data it includes. Just kinda funny to see such a swing in 8 hours.

  • Sam

    Tiny… 7 days out is fantasy land.

  • tiny

    The very purpose of this blog is discussing fantasy land, and as it stands today it looks like next week will be warm and uneventful in fantasy land.

  • AZ

    Im coming in March 14th for 8 days. How does the ‘wet’ snow effect the base into spring?

    • Wet snow is great for base building. Builds a solid base that holds up well into the Spring. Now we just want some dry fluffy snow on top of it. 🙂

  • Dot Blipman

    Hey I’ll be coming on a trip to Utah in April 2018, do you predict any storms, how much snow do you predict? Will the roads be clear? Should I bring my rock skies or my other rock skies? Who will be the next US president? Will anyone in my family get diagnosed with a serious illness?

    Thanks for all you do! I love you blog!


  • forster

    how much snow we looking at in the valley?

  • MS