Wednesday Mid-Morning update:
Just had a look at the 12z guidance… Models are even more aggressive bringing plentiful moisture as far south as the Central Wasatch. Current radar reflects this… Based on this info, would not be surprised if the Cottonwoods and perhaps the high altitudes of the PC ridge saw more than a foot by the end of the day tomorrow. WSF
Snow will develop in the mountains today with valley rain and continue through tomorrow. Amounts of over a foot are possible in far northern Utah with 5-10″ in the Cottonwoods and PC mountains. Warm on Saturday before another cooler system is possible late on Sunday. Another colder storm likely middle of next week.
Our active Wx pattern continues with another atmospheric river taking aim at Washington, Oregon, and Idaho…. just extending far enough south to give us another round of rain and high mountain snow later today, tonight and tomorrow.
Model runs over the last 24 hours were a little better with extending precipitation far enough south to give the Cottonwoods and PC a decent shot at snowfall above 7,000 feet as well. Here is today’s NAM run:
You can see compared to yesterday’s, it does extend the heavier accumulations farther south. Right now there is a Winter Storm Warning north of I-80 in the mountains of Utah. Models are portraying 1.3 – 2″ of liquid for this area by Friday morning which would translate to 10-16″ of heavy, wet snow at 8:1 ratios. QPF is less for the Cottonwoods/PC area, and I don’t think they will see as persistent snowfall as the north, so I think 5-10″ of snow by Friday morning is likely for them.
Snow levels are still a concern, although they look like they will stay closer to 7,000 feet until Friday when they spike up above 8,000 feet. Fortunately, most of our snow should have fallen by then. Thursday should be another good powder day for pushing around heavy wet snow similar to the weekend storm.
We warm up Friday and especially Saturday. 700mb temps are progged to be extremely warm for this time of year. Valleys could hit 60 degrees on Saturday. Most moisture will be pushed to our north at this time. However, another wave will come dropping through the area late on Sunday. This shortwave doesn’t look particularly strong, but it is cooler than what we have seen, so we could get a quick several inches of fluffier snow late on Sunday to freshen up President’s Day Monday.
Another break Monday and Tuesday with warm temps again before we see a potentially stronger, colder storm for the middle of next week. Too early to discuss details, but it has potential to be a fairly good one.
Most major models try to develop a long wave trough toward the end of next week. If this were to set up, we’d see a continuation of frequent storms through the end of February. Fab Feb is becoming a reality!
Here is the map I wanted to show yesterday but wasn’t working…. As I said, Far Northern Wasatch and Western Uintas are above normal now, Northern Wasatch is almost to normal, and the Central Wasatch is around 85% of normal… These numbers should continue to improve!