Instability will increase this afternoon, increasing the chances for snow showers. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a quick few inches in the Cottonwoods. Latest NAM came in looking unbelievably juicy for the Thursday-Friday system. If it were to verify we would be looking at 30-40″ of snow by the end of the day Friday. DO NOT TAKE THIS AS A FORECAST!!!!! As always, it is one run of one model, but even half of that amount would be pretty nice, eh? Also, 12z run of the GFS looks great for snow on Sunday-Monday… hopefully the 12z Euro will be equally optimistic. As always, WSF will keep you updated…WSF
Storm has mostly moved through the area. A few instability showers will remain in the northwest flow that could add another inch or two on top of what we’ve seen. Break on Wednesday before the next system moves into the area late Thursday into Friday. More snow likely in the long range!
Cold front weakened significantly as it dropped south last night. That meant the best totals were found in the northern resorts with 4-7″ being reported north of SLC. Cottonwoods reporting 2-5″. PC ridge resorts getting 2-4″. Additional snow showers likely today in a cool northwest flow that could add another inch or two.
Today’s system was a bit of disappointment, and disappointments happen. Whenever this happens, inevitably you get comments like “it seems like all our storms have been disappointments this year”. The fact is that so far this season, we’ve had more storms that have over-performed than we have under-performed. Trust me, I track this stuff very carefully. In fact, we are only 3 days removed from Saturday where we saw 6″ in the Cottonwoods when we only expected an inch or two at best. It all evens out. And remember, originally the forecast for this system was just 3-6″ — It was always expected to be the weakest in the series. Moving on to bigger and better things…
A break tomorrow before moisture starts to increase on Thursday. Snow should start in the mountains by Thursday afternoon and continue through Thursday night into Friday. If you remember, the big question with this system is where would the best snowfall set up. Yesterday, it looked like central Utah… but today, most models have shifted the boundary north into northern Utah. This is good news for most resorts in the SLC/PC region. This system is stronger and much longer duration than the one last night so amounts should be higher.
Another potentially strong storm will move into the area starting Sunday thru Monday… Still early to worry about details, but its been looking good in the latest models. All major models have another system following this one around Wednesday of next week. If you’re disappointed by the snow amounts that fell today… Don’t worry, there’s plenty more chances ahead for powder!
It’s been a while since we’ve had a good old fashion stinker, sure… we’ve had some underperforming storms, but not a total dud. They do happen! Cold front weakened rapidly as it moved south and only brought a couple inches to the Cottonwood/PC. Cold front held together better farther north. Snowbasin snow stake looks like 6+”.
We’re not totally done yet, however! We should see orographic snow showers develop this morning in a northwest flow — could add several inches to the total. This storm will likely be a bust for most places at our 5-10″ forecast… I hope you didn’t put too much faith in the NWS’s 10-16″ Cottonwoods forecast yesterday. WSF