Monday 5 PM update:
Everything is still on track for tonight’s storm system. A few light snow showers already from Ogden northward. Snow should slowly sag south this evening. 5-10″ still likely in the Wasatch… there is a possibility for more in the Cottonwoods, which are favored by a northwest flow. Valleys should see a few inches that could make tomorrow’s commute interesting. Also, very cold air will accompany this system, so bundle up tomorrow! There is also a chance for some lake enhancement south and southeast of the GSL. It’s much tougher to get lake-effect snow this time of year than it is during the late Fall or Spring, but with the cold air and instability tomorrow, it is a distinct possibility.
Unfortunately, I won’t be able to ski the powder tomorrow, so take a lap for me! WSF
Next storm moves in later today with snow falling overnight tonight. 5-10″ expected in the Wasatch. A break on Wednesday before another system moves in late Thursday – Friday. More unsettled weather late this weekend into next week.
Again, there is a lot to talk about as an active pattern continues to affect the area. Today we will see clouds increasing during the day with a chance for snow moving in from north to south this afternoon and this evening. Snow should start in the afternoon close to the Idaho border and by this evening in the mountains around SLC. Snow will fall, heavy at times, tonight before tapering off during the early morning hours. Orographically enhanced snow showers will continue tomorrow during the day with light additional accumulations. Total accumulations for the Wasatch should be 5-10“… Valleys should also see an inch or two of snow. This snow is very low density (light and fluffy), Tuesday might be another good day to be ‘sick’.
A break on Wednesday before the next system tracks into the area during the day on Thursday. Still some differences in the models with regard to where exactly they have the best precip falling. GFS is the farthest north with a good snowstorm for the Central and Southern Wasatch. GEM is a bit farther south with the best snowfall over the Southern Wasatch and Central Utah. EC is the farthest south with the storm hitting Central and Southern Utah the hardest. I think the entire start should see accumulating snow, but exact amounts are impossible to guess until the models find a consensus. Important to know that Friday looks like it could be another good powder day at least somewhere in the state. Stay tuned.
Finally, we’ll have another break on Saturday and Sunday before the next system rolls into the area late Sunday and Monday. All models are now in agreement that the system will at least bring some decent precip to northern Utah. This system isn’t as cold as the first two, and therefore we might see rain in the lower elevations. Still plenty of time to get the details worked out. Looks like another system will be on this one’s heels for Wednesday of next week.
The active pattern is set to continue for at least the next 10 days. All hands on deck!
Here’s how the snow of the last five days has affected our snowpack numbers:
Generally we are about 10% higher than we were a week ago. Good news, but we still have a long way to go to get to average.
This year (green line) we are now solidly behind the last two years. However, with the upcoming series of storms, I expect we’ll certainly catch 2012 in the next week or two, and possibly catch up and pass 2013. Both of these years had poor February’s. At this point, I’d be astounded if we didn’t make up ground.