4-Storm Forecast

Monday, February 3, 2014 at 6:40 am

Monday 5 PM update:

Everything is still on track for tonight’s storm system. A few light snow showers already from Ogden northward.  Snow should slowly sag south this evening.  5-10″ still likely in the Wasatch… there is a possibility for more in the Cottonwoods, which are favored by a northwest flow.  Valleys should see a few inches that could make tomorrow’s commute interesting.  Also, very cold air will accompany this system, so bundle up tomorrow!  There is also a chance for some lake enhancement south and southeast of the GSL.  It’s much tougher to get lake-effect snow this time of year than it is during the late Fall or Spring, but with the cold air and instability tomorrow, it is a distinct possibility.  

Unfortunately, I won’t be able to ski the powder tomorrow, so take a lap for me!  WSF



Next storm moves in later today with snow falling overnight tonight.  5-10″ expected in the Wasatch.  A break on Wednesday before another system moves in late Thursday – Friday.  More unsettled weather late this weekend into next week.


Again, there is a lot to talk about as an active pattern continues to affect the area.  Today we will see clouds increasing during the day with a chance for snow moving in from north to south this afternoon and this evening.  Snow should start in the afternoon close to the Idaho border and by this evening in the mountains around SLC.  Snow will fall, heavy at times, tonight before tapering off during the early morning hours.  Orographically enhanced snow showers will continue tomorrow during the day with light additional accumulations.  Total accumulations for the Wasatch should be 5-10“… Valleys should also see an inch or two of snow.  This snow is very low density (light and fluffy), Tuesday might be another good day to be ‘sick’.

A break on Wednesday before the next system tracks into the area during the day on Thursday.  Still some differences in the models with regard to where exactly they have the best precip falling.  GFS is the farthest north with a good snowstorm for the Central and Southern Wasatch.  GEM is a bit farther south with the best snowfall over the Southern Wasatch and Central Utah.  EC is the farthest south with the storm hitting Central and Southern Utah the hardest.  I think the entire start should see accumulating snow, but exact amounts are impossible to guess until the models find a consensus.  Important to know that Friday looks like it could be another good powder day at least somewhere in the state. Stay tuned.

Finally, we’ll have another break on Saturday and Sunday before the next system rolls into the area late Sunday and Monday.  All models are now in agreement that the system will at least bring some decent precip to northern Utah.  This system isn’t as cold as the first two, and therefore we might see rain in the lower elevations.  Still plenty of time to get the details worked out.  Looks like another system will be on this one’s heels for Wednesday of next week.

The active pattern is set to continue for at least the next 10 days.  All hands on deck!


Here’s how the snow of the last five days has affected our snowpack numbers:



Generally we are about 10% higher than we were a week ago.  Good news, but we still have a long way to go to get to average.

Snowbird snowpack:



This year (green line) we are now solidly behind the last two years.  However, with the upcoming series of storms, I expect we’ll certainly catch 2012 in the next week or two, and possibly catch up and pass 2013.  Both of these years had poor February’s.  At this point, I’d be astounded if we didn’t make up ground.


This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by .
  • Arm Pitman

    My forecast is 5.5 to 9.57 inches of snow. Please check it out on. Myforcastisbetterthanyours.com

  • Evan,

    I just wanted to thank you for the work you put into this blog. I enjoy reading it every day as I sip my coffee and discuss the day’s plans. I tell others about your site every time weather, Wasatch, and snow come up in conversation – and they come up a lot. Keep up the outstanding effort! In the mean time, let’s all enjoy this nice change in the weather and do some fun skiing.

  • Geoff

    Arriving in SLC for two weeks of skiing on Friday. Looks like the powder gods are smiling on me 🙂

  • Thanks Evan. Great to hear that snow is on it’s way. Just in time for our Aussie visitors!

  • Josh

    Good news! Let’s all hope the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge has given way to the Tenaciously Tough Trough!

  • Mark

    Shoot me an email if you ever want to meet up for some runs at Solitude. I tend to get sick a lot between the hours of 9-11:30am!

    • Will do, Mark. I usually save Solitude for the weekend when other areas are bursting at the seams.

  • Mark

    I’m up at Solitude on the weekends too with the kids and can get away for a run or three. If you ever head up to Powder Mtn during the week I’d love to go with and learn that area better.

  • Laura

    Hi Evan,

    Thank you as always for all the effort you put into your forecasts. I read all your postings whether I am in Utah or back home in NorCal. I am preparing to drive i80 from SF Bay Area to Park City, UT sometime in the window of Feb. 8-12. Luckily I have flexibility on my departure date so I am wondering when you think the best, clear, 12-13 hour window will be between storms? It’s a good problem to have to have to worry about weather, but also an important safety call on my part. Thank you again for all you do!

    • Hi Laura, at this point I think Saturday and Sunday both look decent for driving.

      • Laura

        Thanks Evan. I will check in later in the week. Just wondering what next Tuesday might look like, or is it too far out to tell?

  • Flaccid Phallusman

    Thanks for the hard work. Best forecast blog around without question!

  • Lee

    Evan, first I want to thank you for your dedication to this site. I anxiously await your update every morning. My office mates probably think I have tourettes some mornings when I am punching away at the F5 key.

    Secondly, I have a question. NOAA just upped their forecast for the overnight accumulation. Has anything changed in the models throughout the day to lead to more favorable totals?



    • Hey Lee, Nothing changed per se, but we are a bit closer to the event and the models have been consistent, so I think forecaster confidence is rising. I personally forecast conservatively because I think it is better to be pleasantly surprised than it is to wake up in the morning and be disappointed. I think this system really favors the Cottonwoods, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them best the 5-10″ forecast (knock on wood). Otherwise, I think 5-10″ is a good bet elsewhere.

  • Great job Evan, good to see you are not buying into the 10-16″ forecasted by the National Weather Service http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/snow/mtnwx/mtnForecast.php?forecast=cottonwood&Submit=Go I would love to see 10-16″ in the Cottonwoods but don’t see it with this storm.

    • Yes… I’d be very curious to see where the got those numbers… I just didn’t see anything to support that much.

  • Dot Blipman

    Cottonwoods will definitely get over 12″, mark my word. Also, what do you think about strength/timing of the system later this week? Do you agree with latest model runs?

  • jughead

    looks like 3 inches already at Basin….and from the looks of the webcam, seems to be coming down pretty hard!