Superb Back Bowl Sunday

Sunday, February 2, 2014 at 7:06 am


After an impulse yesterday brought 3-6″ of new snow to many areas, the skiing/riding should be great today on Super Bowl Sunday.  Another storm is moving in Monday night for a Tuesday powder day.  Yet another system likely for Friday.  A cold and snowy week ahead!


Deep and cold trough remains over the entire West right now.  This cold trough allowed a weak but sufficiently moist impulse to bring snow showers to the area yesterday.   We are now in a break before the next system moves in tomorrow (Monday) night.

The next system continues to be consistently depicted in all the models.  Models have increased QPF ever so slightly over the past 24 hours.  While this system is not overly moist, the cold air we have in place will allow for low snow densities that will pile up quickly.  Snow should begin as early as Monday evening and continue through most of the night before turning showery during the day on Tuesday.  Perfect timing for a Tuesday powder day!  I think it’ll be a day for first chair if you’re planning on heading up.

Here is the current NAM-12km graph for the upcoming system for Alta:

Courtesy of

Courtesy of

Almost 10″ by the time the lifts start turning at Alta on Tuesday!  Of course, most areas of the Wasatch don’t see quite as much snow as the Upper Cottonwoods, so for right now the forecast is for 5-10″ accumulation by Tuesday evening in the high Wasatch.

We will be mostly clear and cold on Wednesday and the first part of Thursday.  The next system will track toward us during the day on Thursday, reaching Utah Thursday night.  A few days ago this system was expected to track well south of us in the GFS and hardly showed up at all in the EC.  However, right now it looks like it will move through central Utah, bringing snowfall to nearly the entire state.  It’s hard to say how much at this point, and I’m still worried that models will want to move the best energy south of us again.  But this has the potential to be at least another moderate snow producer and make for a Friday (and possibly Saturday) powder day.

Long range:

The Friday system will be the last system of the current trough (which arrived on Wednesday of last week) before we transition to a new pattern.  The new pattern looks to be more zonal at first with the storm track moving more directly from west to east.  Eventually, the models want to dig a deep trough in the Eastern Pacific while pumping a ridge up over the central US.  This puts Utah directly in between the trough and the ridge.   Right now, most models have a system moving into the West coast on Sunday, Feb 9.  They also show this system interacting with another atmospheric river, so it looks plenty moist.  The big question remains how strong will the ridge to our southeast be…?  If it is strong enough, it could force most of the moisture north of us.  However, latest model runs continue to show the system progressing far enough inland to bring at least Northern Utah a good shot of snow late next Sunday into Monday.  We’ll have to continue to watch this… If it works out in our favor, we could have a significant storm on our hands.  Stay tuned…


P.S.  Count how many times Peyton Manning says “Omaha” today.  That’s how many inches of snow we can expect over the next week.  😉

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  • Steve

    Any thoughts on how Powder Mountain will do on Monday/Tuesday storm?

  • Flaccid Phallusman

    Just wondering if you could include if you think the storms will hit the Valley floor or not. I plow and I like your site for the up coming info. But I have to try and decipher if the storms week drop into the Valleys or not. Thanks I check your site daily

    • Will try to include that. All of these systems are cold enough for snow at all elevations. Lighter amounts in the valleys

  • Kyle

    Does this feb 9th storm look to be a big one in terms of precipitation for the Western Rockies as a whole?

  • The Dude

    Tuesday morning will be our first chance of Lake Effect/enhancement SE of the GSL in a while! The 12Z NWS WRF-ARW4G supports this idea.

  • Kyle

    I didn’t hear a single Omaha..