A few more days of valley inversions and dry weather before a change starts to take place with mountain snow likely to return next week.
It has been one week since the now famous “So you’re saying there’s a chance” post in which we saw the first signs of a potential pattern change. I wouldn’t have written that post if I didn’t feel fairly confident that a pattern change would take place at the end of January. Sure enough, it looks like we are in store for one next week.
Our old friend, Mr. Ridge, is firmly re-establishing himself after letting a weak system drop to our east yesterday. That system didn’t bring any precip to the area to my knowledge, but it did kick up some downslope winds that helped mix out the air a bit today. Unfortunately, air quality will worsen again this weekend. Another weak system will drop down the Continental Divide on Monday and Tuesday and should bring us some more clouds and breezes and maybe a chance for a mountain snow shower.
The main change comes on Tuesday night into Wednesday as a stronger system comes barreling in out of the west and effectively breaks down the ridge. I still don’t have confidence in this system as these initial storms have a tendency to be ripped apart by high pressure, but the last few runs have been slightly stronger. Right now I would think that it’s possible the mountains could see a few inches.
A strong and moist westerly flow develops thereafter… It’s still about a week away, but it looks like we’ll have a good chance for snow next Friday and/or Saturday. Too early to know any of the exact timing, strength, or snow level details, but I’d say the chances are pretty good we get something fresh to ride. Here is a teaser for model composite QPF through February 3:
Now we just wait a few days to let these systems come into better range for forecasting details.