A very weak system will bring some clouds and breezes to the Wasatch and Wasatch Front tonight and tomorrow. While precipitation looks unlikely, it may be enough to help mix out the valleys a bit. Dry weather returns for the weekend. Still anxiously waiting for a possible pattern change at the end of January.
Details / Long Range:
Not much new today to talk about. As mentioned in the summary, a weak system tonight and tomorrow could help air quality a bit. However it’s back into the soup we go this weekend with more stagnant conditions.
A lot of chatter about the upcoming pattern change. Not a whole lot new to talk about today. It still looks like the pattern will change. It’s important to note that it is possible to go from one type of dry pattern to another. I don’t think that will be the case this time, but you never know. At the same time, it looks unlikely that we’ll immediately start seeing strong systems.
The first system will be breaking down the ridge on the 3oth and 31st of January. This will likely weaken the storm considerably. GFS has the system shearing completely apart and doing virtually nothing for us. EC weakens it and pushes it just to our north, leaving us with only a weak grazing system. GEM is farthest south and gives us perhaps a moderate storm. I personally like the EC solution as it is both a reliable model and a middle-of-the-road solution right now.
Beyond that, the general idea is to try to carve out a trough over the west but that is still far from certain. Here are the GEFS height anomalies for January 24, February 1, and February 6 respectively:
In the first image, we are under a massive ridge. By Feb 1, there is a weak trough where that ridge used to exist along the west coast. We then see shortwave ridge from Feb 3-5… By Feb 6, a stronger, deeper trough is just off the coast (third image). This is 15 days away and I don’t really put much faith in any of the specifics, but it does show that the overall pattern will likely be changing and hopefully that will lead to some good storms eventually.
We’ve been in as stubborn of a pattern as you can get and it’s hard to go from 0 to 60 overnight. Eventually, the operational and deterministic runs will get withing range and we’ll have a better idea what to expect.