Waiting game

Monday, January 20, 2014 at 6:36 am


More of the same… Warm and sunny in the mountains with cooler, hazier conditions in the valley.  Slight chance for showers on Thursday and a chance for a pattern change at the end of the month.


The next 5 or 6 days will continue to be more of the same as we just wait and see how the potential pattern change develops…. if it develops.  We do have a weak system this Thursday to watch as well.  It will be dropping south along the Continental Divide and clipping the area.  The system is weak to begin with and only going to get weaker by the time it reaches us.  Yesterday’s EC model had it delivering a few inches of snow, but today’s run has backed off on that and is closer to the GFS.  I think at best we can only expect clouds, some breezes that may help scour valleys a bit, and perhaps a few snow showers.

High pressure returns in full force this weekend.  Even if we manage to scour inversions on Thursday, they’ll likely be back during the weekend.

Long range:

Ridge finally starts to break down next week.  Hopefully we don’t see the models backtrack on this pattern change.  EC has our first storm coming in late next Tuesday (Jan 28).  GFS holds off until around the 30th for our first system.  As of right now, both models show at least 1 or 2 more systems moving into the area as we head into February.   This may sound good, but it is still way off in fantasyland, so it would be wise for us to not get excited yet.  Time will tell if the models have a good hold on things or if we are in for continued dry weather.

Looking at teleconnections… we are finally seeing some change.  PNA, which has been strongly positive, is forecasted to go negative and the MJO is strengthening.  Hopefully these can help flip this pattern into something more normal for Utah.

This pattern change is going to be the story of the next week or more, so get used to hearing about it.


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  • Frederic

    Let’s hope it’s true, will be in salt lake city on february the 1st for a week!

  • Kristen

    Me too Frederic – I will be there that week as well!

  • Eric Lewis

    I will be there on the first for the whole month, perhaps, Kristen and Frederic, we need to do a collective snow-dance!

    • Ben

      I am heading there too first week of Feb, with a crew from Oz. Dancing for some of this……

  • Steve

    I am also there the first week of February. Perhaps there is strength in numbers.

  • Will it ever snow againt in Tahoe?

    We also have a trip planned for the first week in February (and we’ve already cancelled two trips this year). But after hinting at a pattern change for several days, the latest GFS runs shows another ridge building (i.e., no real pattern change) after a potential brush with a small storm around the end of January. The latest run again places the storm track north of Utah (and well north of California). 🙁

  • I’m not sure what you’re looking at but the ensemble mean for the GFS still shows a large scale trough developing by Feb1….

    • Jake


  • Steve

    Easy to get sucked in by 1 or 2 runs of the GFS. I try not to get too excited or too sad on the individual runs until there is some consistency. And this far out, it will change.

    • Sometimes I wish they would do away with the precip parameter for the GFS beyond 7 days…. People tend to read way too much into it.

  • Steve

    But then there’s the latest run which seems to delay every thing. Sigh…….