Last (and strongest?) in the series

Saturday, January 11, 2014 at 7:31 am

Saturday PM update:

Everything is still on track.  Really liking the look of things in the most recent model guidance.   Snow levels will start high but should fall quickly tonight.  4-8″ seems likely to fall overnight with at least another 4-8″ tomorrow.   10-20″ still seems like a reasonable forecast.  Tomorrow is going to be SUNDAY FUNDAY!  Let’s hope the winds die down a bit tonight.  WSF


Warm and windy today ahead of the next system.  Strong storm brings snow tonight and tomorrow.  This will lead to hefty totals in the 10-20″ range.    High pressure returns for the rest of this week.


Yesterday was a bit of a bust.  Well as much of a bust as it can be after getting 15-25″ in the previous 48 hours.  I expected warm advection to bring additional snow and it just never really got going.  Just very light snow.  The lack of snow allowed winds to get stronger than expected.  The combination of strong wind and snow settling led to very dense powder.  I got lots of reports of “deep but heavy” yesterday.

Today it is going to be quite windy again ahead of the next system.   Southwest flow today will warm temperatures considerably into the 30s on the mountain and near 50 in the valleys.  Snow moves in tonight with initial snow levels near 7000 feet.  They should lower fairly quickly down to valley floors around midnight.  This system will be “right side up” with the high density snow on the bottom.

Snow will continue through the night and through at least the morning tomorrow.  Right now I’m thinking 10-20″ of snow is a good bet for the high elevations.

The one fear I have is wind.  This system looks to pack quite a punch wind-wise.  Hopefully below the ridgelines it won’t be too bad, but there could be some exposed areas tomorrow where the powder is wind-blown.

A few snow showers could linger through Sunday night but should clear out on Monday.


High pressure takes hold next week for rapidly warming high elevation temps and valley inversions (sarcastic “yay”).   GFS still shows a few systems trying to break through the ridge after the 20th.  The ECMWF, in a nice twist, is now showing a couple weak to moderate storms moving into our area January 19-21.   Looks like something is out there for us.  Just not quite sure what it is yet.  Stay tuned!

Enjoy the powder tomorrow and Monday!   If you are heading to the backcountry, consult the Utah Avalanche Center beforehand.  Avalanche danger is considerable or high at all elevations and on all aspects.



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  • Steve

    What a difference a day makes! Thursday was a dream come true, and Friday was Heavy Windblown. Hard to believe the snow could change so much in 12 hours.
    Heading back east, thanks for the last 30 days of accurate reporting!! Be back in the spring.

    • Yeah, it was a bummer. I didn’t expect it to happen! That’s for sure!

    • Safe travels!

      • Lincoln Tedeschi


        Thanks for the great forecasts. I have a shuttle at 5:45 am in Sunday morning from alta to the airport. Do you think the road will be closed?

        • It’s certainly a possibility but there’s no way to know for sure.

        • lincoln…get an evening shuttle and a cheap salt lake hotel…dont chance it!

          • Lincoln, whether the road is closed or not. Use the snow as an excuse to stay an extra day and ski pow!

  • Steve

    WSF, any thoughts on latest 2 runs of GFS? Seem to delay storminess and weaken storms as they come through. I assume battling against the ridge. But you’re the man, so interested in your thoughts.

  • Kassie

    Skied Reynold Glades up BCC today and there is a thick and very hard rain crust all the way up to 9500 feet that had to have happened within the last 24 hours. Any idea what the deal is with that? It was bizarre and very unexpected.

    • Don’t think it’s rain, more likely a thick wind crust with possibly some help from riming from yesterday and last night.

      • Kassie

        That’s what I thought too, but UAC also reported freezing rain? Either way, it’s rough out there!

    • JC

      Prolly rime from the strong warm advecton Friday.

  • Steve

    Damn! Will see what models do over next week. This next trip was an impromptu one and is full of family stuff. The one I really need snow on is 1-31 to 2-9. Hopefully pattern changes for that one.

  • Jake

    It’s raining at Brighton right now

  • star

    that was the worst bs series of storms that gave us: wind from hell seirra cemnet rain and a bigger storm that TOTALLY MISSED US> fuckin lame