Saturday PM update:
Everything is still on track. Really liking the look of things in the most recent model guidance. Snow levels will start high but should fall quickly tonight. 4-8″ seems likely to fall overnight with at least another 4-8″ tomorrow. 10-20″ still seems like a reasonable forecast. Tomorrow is going to be SUNDAY FUNDAY! Let’s hope the winds die down a bit tonight. WSF
Warm and windy today ahead of the next system. Strong storm brings snow tonight and tomorrow. This will lead to hefty totals in the 10-20″ range. High pressure returns for the rest of this week.
Yesterday was a bit of a bust. Well as much of a bust as it can be after getting 15-25″ in the previous 48 hours. I expected warm advection to bring additional snow and it just never really got going. Just very light snow. The lack of snow allowed winds to get stronger than expected. The combination of strong wind and snow settling led to very dense powder. I got lots of reports of “deep but heavy” yesterday.
Today it is going to be quite windy again ahead of the next system. Southwest flow today will warm temperatures considerably into the 30s on the mountain and near 50 in the valleys. Snow moves in tonight with initial snow levels near 7000 feet. They should lower fairly quickly down to valley floors around midnight. This system will be “right side up” with the high density snow on the bottom.
Snow will continue through the night and through at least the morning tomorrow. Right now I’m thinking 10-20″ of snow is a good bet for the high elevations.
The one fear I have is wind. This system looks to pack quite a punch wind-wise. Hopefully below the ridgelines it won’t be too bad, but there could be some exposed areas tomorrow where the powder is wind-blown.
A few snow showers could linger through Sunday night but should clear out on Monday.
High pressure takes hold next week for rapidly warming high elevation temps and valley inversions (sarcastic “yay”). GFS still shows a few systems trying to break through the ridge after the 20th. The ECMWF, in a nice twist, is now showing a couple weak to moderate storms moving into our area January 19-21. Looks like something is out there for us. Just not quite sure what it is yet. Stay tuned!
Enjoy the powder tomorrow and Monday! If you are heading to the backcountry, consult the Utah Avalanche Center beforehand. Avalanche danger is considerable or high at all elevations and on all aspects.