Muster Duck

Sunday, January 5, 2014 at 7:16 am


Dry weather Sunday and Monday… Increasing clouds with a chance for very light snow Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.  Better chance for snow Thursday thru next weekend.


Wow! There is only one word to describe the models right now, and it rhymes with ‘musterduck’…  Not much agreement in anything, which makes forecasting very difficult.  We are still watching three systems, so let’s break the forecast down by individual storms…

Tuesday PM/Wednesday AM:  The first system enters the area.  Like i said yesterday, this is more just a push of moist air with little dynamics.  This storm will already have been sheared apart while breaking down the ridge.   So accumulations should be extremely minimal if anything at all.

Thursday PM/Friday AM;  This system is the one causing all the headaches.  It started out looking good in both models.  Then both the EC and GFS showed it splitting with most moisture dropping down the CA coast and through the desert SW.  Then both models came back to the consolidated, good-for-us scenario.  Now, for the past 24-hours,  the EC has gone back to the split solution while the GFS keeps most of the storm north of us.  Currently, neither solution is very good.  However, if we can establish a compromise solution, it might end up being a decent system — but as things currently stand, it doesn’t look like anything other than light snow amounts.

Sunday/Monday:  This is the third in the series and the one that looks the most promising in all models to be at least halfway decent.  Interestingly, models have had much more agreement 7-10 days out than they have had 5-7 days out.  Still a lot can change, but hopefully this storm produces for us.

Long-range:  At this point, models generally agree on re-building the Eastern Pacific ridge around mid-month. There is a lot more activity going on in the Pacific right now, so even if the ridge does re-build, I don’t think it will last as long as we’ve seen over the past couple weeks.

Hopefully tomorrow (or maybe even tonight) we’ll update you on the Thursday/Friday storm when/if the models find some consensus.


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6 thoughts on “Muster Duck

  1. steve

    Do you think the Tuesday Wednesday event will be as significant as the event we just had this past Friday night?

  2. Ryan C

    Talk about crazy models! Just for kicks, I checked Accuweather (lol, I know) and they’re predicting 8 inches Thursday night in Alta. I know their long range is utter junk, but even for a 5 day I’m wondering what they’re looking at!

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