Quick Hit

Saturday, January 4, 2014 at 7:42 am

Short term:

Storm is already mostly out of the area and today should be mostly clear… perhaps even bluebird.  It will certainly feel clear in the valleys where most if not all of the inversion has been scoured out.  My house in the Salt Lake Valley saw a little over an inch.   The forecast yesterday, if you recall, was for 1-4″ with maybe up to 6″ in favored location if we got lucky.   Looking at the reports, I see anywhere from 2-5″ in Northern Utah mountains — just about as expected.

Today should ski like dust on crust.  Wish it was deep powder, but every little bit helps.

Long term:

We’ll dry out through Tuesday with inversion starting to build back in.  This time, however, they shouldn’t get as bad as another trough enters the area by Wednesday.

The last two days we’ve told you about 3 separate systems in this upcoming series.  They all still exist so lets take a look at the latest in how the models handle these.

Tuesday night/Wednesday:  The first system has almost no dynamics and is more of just a push of moisture.  It’ll bring us some snow showers to the high elevations, but accumulations should be light.

Thursday night/Friday:  The second system is stronger.  Yesterday this looked like it might drop down the California coast and into the desert SW, largely missing us.  Yesterday evening, however, models trended this back north and gave us almost a direct hit.  Now they’ve trended a bit south again, but only a bit.  In this scenario, Southern Utah would get the best snow while northern Utah sees a few more inches.   Clearly the models don’t have this system locked down yet, so we’ll have to monitor it over the next day or two.

Sunday/Monday:  A third system shows up in both the GFS and the EC now (unlike yesterday).  This third system has the potential to be the strongest of the three.  This morning’s EC has it moving into the area in two separate waves.  Too early to talk amounts, but hopefully it will be a bit more significant.

The uber-long range is impossible to forecast with any confidence, but both major models establish at least a few days of drying during the middle of January under high pressure.  Hopefully it’s just a normal cyclical break in systems.


This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by .
  • steve

    3 years at Park City for a month from mid December to mid January and 3 years a bummer. Average of 1 powder day per month per year. 3 years makes a trend in my book. Guess I will have to go somewhere else next year!

    • Kaykoh

      8+ inches up high at PCMR. Other groomers claimed 10 inches up by Jupiter.

  • steve

    I don’t see that?

    04 Jan 8:00 am MST 4 0 84 -16 NW 18G26 33.80 2.15 2.56 2.09 OK
    04 Jan 7:00 am MST 6 2 85 -14 NW 20G32 33.67 3.08 2.23 2.22 OK
    04 Jan 6:00 am MST 6 3 85 -13 NW 17G25 33.43 2.43 1.99 1.96 OK
    04 Jan 5:00 am MST 6 3 85 -13 NW 17G23 33.70 2.80 2.26 2.23 OK
    04 Jan 4:00 am MST 8 5 86 -12 NW 20G33 33.74 2.44 2.04 2.24 OK
    04 Jan 3:00 am MST 11 8 88 -8 NW 20G28 32.62 1.32 1.18 1.85 OK

    • Kaykoh

      Spent the night grooming…I assure you, there is at the very least 8 inches above the King Shop.

  • Spank Tickleman

    At this point any snow is good snow. .

  • james

    Steve do you work in PC or just vacation?

  • steve

    I am just here on vacation. Skied my 20th consecutive day today.
    It definately skied more like 6 to even 8 inches in spots today.
    Way more than the 3 inches reported

  • Steve

    By the way, I think there’s 2 Steves. I did not post above. I have a place in PC and get there about 7 times a year. Like my sking to have powder, so keep a close eye on the weather.Which this site is helpful on.

  • Steve

    FWIW, the last couple of runs of GFS seemed more positive for coming week.

  • Steve

    Bummer. Tough to get a break this winter.

  • Steve

    The 0Z GFS was not great. Not nothing, but not a whole lot and then very bleak in long term. Really need a change in pattern. A big one.