Change

Friday, January 3, 2014 at 7:07 am

Summary:

A weak storm moves in late today into tonight, bringing a few inches of snow to the mountains of Northern Utah.  A pattern shift next week will bring a chance for more snow, however details remain vague.

Details:

System shown clearly riding along the continental divide this morning to our north on this morning’s water vapor.  This system will continue to drop southeast through the day and will clip Northern Utah with a cold front this evening and overnight.  Don’t expect a ton of snow up high, probably 1-4″ with maybe up to 6″ in favored locations if we get lucky.  Better than nothing right?  The timing is also good to soften up the turns tomorrow morning.

High pressure will build back in late Saturday thru Sunday.  Inversions should be mostly scoured out by the Friday night front, but will return by Sunday and strengthen on Monday.

Changes start to take place on Tuesday as the east Pacific ridge retrogrades and flattens.  This will allow a weak preliminary system to move through the area by Wednesday.  Doesn’t look like it’ll produce much, but a few more inches of snow is possible.

The following system is stronger, but in the last 24 hours models have decided to split it rather than move it through Utah.  We’ll likely see some moisture and instability still, but the bulk of the precip will either move well norther into BC or drop down the CA coast and then move through Southern AZ.  It’s a bit of a bummer, but still better than high pressure everywhere.

There is a third system in the Euro that currently looks stronger and more consolidated.  I mentioned it yesterday as well, it is timing for late next weekend (Jan 12-13).    If you are a GFS watcher, you won’t see this system as it doesn’t exist in the operational run.  However, some of the GFS ensembles, as well as both the GEM and EC show it moving in.  Too early to get excited at all, but at the very least it will give us another chance for snow.

It is very rare for us to go from an extremely dry pattern to big storms in an instant.  We may be starting out with small storms, but hopefully with time the systems will become more promising.  Remember, any change is good change — and we are for sure seeing a change in the pattern next week.

Hopefully tomorrow’s storm over-performs and we actually get a decent little surprise powder day!

WSF





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  • star

    NO F%$# way will it be a powder day till… it’s not dust on crust …we could get 10 + it still will not be … fun … till the crust is buried!

  • james

    Woooo hooo new definition of large wasatch storm