Successful Superstition?

Tuesday, December 31, 2013 at 7:22 am

Yesterday, in desperation, I called on people to go out and wash their cars, do their snow dances, burn old skis, or any other ritual they found to be successful in the past.  Did it work this time?  Kinda.  Models look better today than yesterday, so that’s a start!

We have two weak grazing systems — one that already moved through overnight and did nothing other than increase clouds a bit, and another stronger one that will move through this evening.  This second one might be strong enough to bring a few snow showers to the Northern Wasatch and maybe help mix out the valleys just a bit.  At most, only an inch or two can be expected, and even that is wishful thinking.

Things should clear up again by tomorrow morning with inversions re-strengthening.   The next chance for some precip will be Friday night when the next system drops into the area.  This is another weak grazer system.  GFS keeps almost all precip north of Utah while the EC drops the front through with a few hours of showers early on Saturday.  At best, we are looking at a few inches in the high elevations, so nothing to write home about.

The long range still shows a bit of change in the overall pattern.  GFS continues to try to undercut the ridge as we head into the second week of January.  If this were to happen, it would take a while and I don’t see any meaningful storms in the GFS until at least January 10.  The ECMWF has had three runs in a row that have looked better for actually breaking down the ridge (at least temporarily).  This morning’s EC actually has a decent system moving into the west coast at the end of its deterministic run.  (About January 9th).

Here is a map of forecasted precip through the evening of January 9 in the ECMWF model:


Image courtesy of


You can see that the Sierra Nevada to our west finally might get a good shot of snow.  This storm is at the very end of the range, so hopefully tomorrow’s run will have it progressing east toward Utah.   This is very far out and cannot be relied upon, but at least one model (and often the more accurate model) is showing some good signs in the long-range.

Keep the rituals going!  We need to turn this pattern around soon.  I don’t want to be desperately playing catch-up in February and March like we have been the last two years.

Have a happy New Year!


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