Dry weather through the end of this work week, although two weak systems will graze northern Utah bringing us some breezes and cloud cover. A storm system may drop far enough south to bring light snow this weekend. Pattern change still possible in the long-range . . .
Ridge remains well established over the Western U.S. Two weak systems will ride over the ridge today and tomorrow and drop into the Northern Rockies. Right now, it looks like most, if not all, precipitation will stay north of Utah with only clouds and breezes on Tuesday and Wednesday. These weak grazing fronts likely won’t stir up the air enough to rid us of the inversions, unfortunately.
Next system will drop into the area Friday night into Saturday. This one is a bit deeper but latest GFS run keeps it mostly north of the region as well. GEM and EC are farther south but even in their scenario, it is a small system. It’s hard to say right now, but best guess at this point is just a few inches accumulation.
Beyond the weekend, things get all muddled. Models don’t agree with each other, run to run consistency is poor, and ensembles within the same model have very little agreement. We are hoping for a pattern change. At the very least, something ought to change. At times we’ve seen model runs that have looked promising. At other times the model runs have shown a quick storm before a return to ridging. All of this makes for an impossible forecast from January 5 onward. My personal opinion is that some changes will certainly take place, and at this point any change is a good change. However, that does not necessarily mean that we’ll transition to a wet pattern — it is perfectly possible we can go from one dry pattern to another dry pattern. Hopefully within the next 24-48 hours the models will find some consistency and I’ll have a better idea what you can expect.
Until then, keep the rituals going (snow dances, car washing, ski burning, etc)!