Happy Thanksgiving!

Thursday, November 28, 2013 at 7:38 am

Despite constant forecast challenges and frustrations, I’m thankful for living in Utah, where I can ski 50+ times every year and have double digit powder days every year.  There really is nothing like Utah POW!

Now…. a quick discussion on the source of today’s consternation…

I’m going to be brief today as there’s so much craziness going on in the models, and so much food to be prepped in my kitchen, that there’s no point rambling on.  General trend over the last 24 hours is to pinch off the trough for early next week.  The disadvantages of this are that we stand more chance of this Low’s center tracking to our west and then south and missing us.   Not saying that’s going to happen, but there’s a greater chance of it.  The advantage of this “pinching off” of the Low is that it’s movement is now slower and we will likely see a chance for snow starting Monday night and continuing through Friday.

What we do know for sure is that it will get much colder next week.  We can also assume that there will be periods of snow for all elevations.  What is impossible to forecast at this point is accumulations.  So let’s just keep it broadbrushed for now — off and on snow in the mountains next week between Monday night and Friday with plenty of cold air.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!


P.S. I got lots of emails/messages/comments yesterday regarding the 12z GFS operational run.  I encourage you to look at models, as its part of the fun of being a ski/snowboard bum, but try not to put too much stock in one run of any given model (especially the GFS) — it will drive you insane.  Also, I would recommend not looking at precip parameters outside of 5 days.   It is also fickle and unreliable and will have you scrutinizing every little detail.

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