The models wobbled a bit yesterday — with several runs, primarily of the GFS, showing more of a splitting trough early next week. If this were to happen, we’d still get much colder and see snowfall in the Wasatch next week, however amounts would probably be less. This morning, the models are in general agreement again keeping the trough more consolidated as it moves into the Great Basin early next week. This is good news — and hopefully they continue with this idea as it would bring the area the potential for significant snowfall starting Monday night.
Until then, expect dry and relatively mild conditions to persist through this weekend. Valley inversions will exist so it might be worth your time to head to the high country to avoid the haze.
Things start to change on Sunday as a weak wave pushes into the area in a northwest flow. We should only see a few clouds and maybe a high elevation snow shower on Sunday. On Monday, SW winds will pick up ahead of the main front with precipitation moving in on Monday night. This trough is moving rather slowly and will affect the area through Wednesday with several pieces of energy. It has decent moisture and a good baroclinic structure. As mentioned before, as long as it all comes together as currently expected, this will be a very cold and snowy storm for all of Utah.
Beyond that system, models diverge late next week but generally keep a cold, unsettled period going for the area.
T-6 days until winter returns…