Pattern change still on track

Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 7:14 am

The models wobbled a bit yesterday — with several runs, primarily of the GFS, showing more of a splitting trough early next week. If this were to happen, we’d still get much colder and see snowfall in the Wasatch next week, however amounts would probably be less. This morning, the models are in general agreement again keeping the trough more consolidated as it moves into the Great Basin early next week. This is good news — and hopefully they continue with this idea as it would bring the area the potential for significant snowfall starting Monday night.

Until then, expect dry and relatively mild conditions to persist through this weekend.  Valley inversions will exist so it might be worth your time to head to the high country to avoid the haze.

Things start to change on Sunday as a weak wave pushes into the area in a northwest flow.  We should only see a few clouds and maybe a high elevation snow shower on Sunday.  On Monday, SW winds will pick up ahead of the main front with precipitation moving in on Monday night.  This trough is moving rather slowly and will affect the area through Wednesday with several pieces of energy.  It has decent moisture and a good baroclinic structure.  As mentioned before, as long as it all comes together as currently expected, this will be a very cold and snowy storm for all of Utah.

Beyond that system, models diverge late next week but generally keep a cold, unsettled period going for the area.

T-6 days until winter returns…


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  • Spencer

    T-minus 6 days and counting till the weather turns good.

  • Steve

    Any thoughts on the 12Z GFS? Looks to be a bit more southerly with the precip. Geting nervous.

    • James

      Yes I saw that also. I am about ready to give up on this season..

      noticed that the past seveal winters the south has been doing decent but we have been doing poorly?

      I guess lets hope for a good season next year

  • Steve

    James, it’s not even December yet. Way too early to give up. And, it’s only 1 run of the GFS. There’s all of the other models as well. I was just hoping there were other models or factors that WSF could tell me about to reassure me. Will see how things develop in next few days.

  • Chris

    James – You seem like a debby downer. Although the best time for deep powder skiing & not worrying about the sun angle is early december – mid february…