Dry Turkey

Sunday, November 24, 2013 at 8:45 am

Storm will finally start to dwindle today in Southern Utah as the low moves east and out of the Arizona and New Mexico.  It looks like we will probably stay dry through the Thanksgiving week and into the weekend.  Right now, it looks like there will be another closed low that will drop down well off the California coast before ejecting inland (in a weakened state) through SoCal and AZ.  Right now I don’t think this will have a significant impact on our Wx.

Things may start to get more interesting as we head into December.  The Euro, GEM, and many GFS ensembles agree on the retrogression of the East Pacific ridge and a general trend toward troughing in the Western US.  It’s still far too early to start forecasting any storms, but the consistency of the models right now is giving me hope for a good start to December.

For what it’s worth, long range models have generally been forecasting a drier than normal November, with at or above normal months for Dec, Jan, and Feb for most of this Autumn.  The November forecast looks to be accurate, let’s hope the Dec-Feb timeframe was accurate as well.


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  • mgilly

    Dry Turkey indeed. So much for my TG holiday skiing plans in Utah. Do you see the closed low heading into south west Colorado eventually as seems to have been the trend with these systems that are deflected by the ridge or do you see it staying well south? Thanks!

    • Good question! Those cut-off lows are so hard to forecast their exact track. It’s certainly possible that the San Juans of Colorado could see some snow from this Low, but current model guidance has it weakening significantly before it moves into the desert Southwest over the weekend.

      • mgilly

        Gotchya thanks. Is there another cutoff low passing well to the North of Utah around the 29th? Some sites are forecasting accumulation for the Tetons and I am trying to figure out how accurate that is and where this system is coming from. Sorry to venture off topic, trying to reroute my ski trip.

        • No worries, unfortunately, it doesn’t look like there is going to be much fresh snow anywhere in the West this week. The best bet would be Southern Colorado which saw plenty of snow over the last few days. The tetons could get a bit next weekend.

          • mgilly

            Thanks appreciate all the insight.

  • Keaton

    Hi WSF. Frequent reader here thanks for all you do. Question: do you think that the next week will be cold enough for snowmaking?! Specifically for the PC resorts?

  • Steve

    So, WSF, can we vote for the model run we like and make that be the actual weather. If so, I’m voting for the latest run of the GFS. 18Z. Would be awesome. At least for my timing.

    • Yes, that model run did look good. Would you believe it if I told you the Euro looks even better? Still too early to get excited, but . . .