Storm will finally start to dwindle today in Southern Utah as the low moves east and out of the Arizona and New Mexico. It looks like we will probably stay dry through the Thanksgiving week and into the weekend. Right now, it looks like there will be another closed low that will drop down well off the California coast before ejecting inland (in a weakened state) through SoCal and AZ. Right now I don’t think this will have a significant impact on our Wx.
Things may start to get more interesting as we head into December. The Euro, GEM, and many GFS ensembles agree on the retrogression of the East Pacific ridge and a general trend toward troughing in the Western US. It’s still far too early to start forecasting any storms, but the consistency of the models right now is giving me hope for a good start to December.
For what it’s worth, long range models have generally been forecasting a drier than normal November, with at or above normal months for Dec, Jan, and Feb for most of this Autumn. The November forecast looks to be accurate, let’s hope the Dec-Feb timeframe was accurate as well.