Tuesday PM update:
The high elevations of the Wasatch saw snow, as expected, for most of the day. It did remain light however, which was also expected. Overall 1-3″ fell above 7,500 ft.
Latest models have looked a bit better for snowfall tomorrow afternoon through Thursday afternoon. 18z NAM is forecasting 12-14″ for Alta… I’m not sold on this much snow as there just isn’t much in the way of good dynamics. It might be best to air on the conservative side again and say maybe 4-8″. But it’s worth noting that it has the potential to drop more that that. Central and southern Utah should certainly see 6-12″ above 8k feet. Very good news for them!
Very complicated forecast over the next few days. Simply put, we’ll have a chance for snow above 7,000 feet in Utah today thru early Friday.
There are three distinct waves. The first, will move through the area today. This is very moist but lacks dynamics. Today should be cloudy with occasional light snow above 7,500 feet or so. I don’t expect more than an inch or two today.
Tomorrow into tomorrow night, another impulse will drop down out of the northwest. This will stall a boundary over central Utah that will interact with existing moisture bringing a period of snow to the mountains of central and southern Utah. It looks like the heaviest snow will be south of the Wasatch, but there should still be some snow showers up north. Accumulations tomorrow looks to be another 1-3″ up north with 4-8″ in the central and southern mountains.
The final part of this series of systems is a closed low that will form off the Southern California coast on Thursday. This low will ever-so-slowly meander through Arizona and New Mexico between Friday and Monday or so of next week. This won’t do much at all for Northern Utah besides dry us out. Far Southern and Eastern Utah could see clouds and a chance for showers over the weekend, but it does not look significant.
Overall, it looks like just 3-6″ for the Wasatch above 7,500′ through Friday. It will fall over a long period of time so it won’t even feel like that much. Who knows, with so much going on, we could get lucky and get more widespread and heavier precip than I’m currently expecting. For the mountains of Central and Southern Utah, they should do better. I think a total of 5-10″ above 8000 feet is certainly possible for them between now and Friday.
The weekend looks mostly dry, especially in the north. Dry weather will continue through at least the middle of next week. Big differences in the models exist for the Thanksgiving holiday. The GFS keeps us dry until the end of Thanksgiving weekend then brings a series of systems into the area around the first of December. The Euro, however, brings a decent system into the area on Thanksgiving Day. The GEM keeps us high and dry like the GFS through Thanksgiving. The Euro has shown this Thanksgiving storm for the past two runs — it has also been the most accurate model so far this Fall — let’s hope it’s on to something again.