Monday, November 18, 2013 at 7:36 am

Today will be dry and cool, before a “system” moves into the area starting tomorrow.  I say “system” because it doesn’t have much in the way of dynamics for it to truly be called a storm system.  When you look at it on the water vapor loop, it looks more like a giant blob of moisture moving toward the west coast — and that’s exactly what it is (though the meteorologic term would be plume).  Anyway, this plume of moisture is going to move onto the west coast tomorrow and track into the Great Basin tomorrow afternoon.

After noon tomorrow, all of Utah will have plenty of clouds and a chance for some precipitation.  Snow levels will be high though — around 7K feet.  This moisture fetch should last through at least early Friday, so expect cloudiness and a chance for showers to stick around.  It’s hard to pinpoint exact impulses in this pattern, but it looks like the best chances for rain/snow will be tomorrow evening and again Thursday afternoon.  As for accumulations, it will be the type of storm that puts down and inch or two at a time above 8,000 ft.   By Friday, we could see totals of 4-8″ up high, but it won’t feel or look like that much because the snow will compact in between impulses.  If only we had some dynamics with all this atmospheric moisture!!!!

Over the weekend, a cutoff low will develop in Southern Arizona, this will stall for a couple days and bring AZ a solid period of rain.  Some of this will extend into Southern Utah as well.   In the north, we should be dry from Friday onward.  It looks like high pressure will take hold as we head into next week and toward Thanksgiving.  Right now, it doesn’t look like any big chances for snow before the holiday.  But that could change . . .

There is hope in the super long term.  Here is a look at the CFS’s week 4 forecasted precip anomalies:



Lots of green over the West, that is good! But my confidence in the CFS this far out is about as high as a ski hill in the midwest (not very high).

Looking at our snowpack situation, the last few weeks caused us to fall behind normal in the Cottonwoods, but this weekend’s storm brought us back up to average.  I think we’ll continue to fall back below average over the next week or more until we get a good storm cycle into the area again.   Green line is this year so far, blue line is average.



Hopefully as we head into December, we’ll see that green line spike up!  We’ll keep you updated!


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