Adding it all up

Sunday, November 17, 2013 at 7:02 am

It’s all over!  The system has moved out of the area — setting up for a perfect day! If you remember, our forecast for this storm was 7-14″ with more possible in places.  We mentioned on Friday that this was a conservative forecast as there was a model or two forecasting more than that.  Well, once again, this storm delivered.  I keep track of each and every snowfall we get, and compare that to my forecast.  Of the 7 distinct systems we’ve had this year, 3 of them have fallen perfectly into my forecasted amounts and 4 of them have exceeded expectations.  Hopefully this is a trend that will continue all season.

Here’s a look at some snow reports and snotel sites:

  • Solitude and Brighton reporting 48-hour totals of 20-24″.
  • Solitude summit snotel shows 20″ of new snow.
  • Alta Collins gauge reports 16″ of new snow since Friday AM.
  • Alta/Snowbird reporting 12-13″ in last 24 hours.
  • Deer Valley gauge shows 13″ of new snow mid-mountain.
  • PCMR gauge on Jupiter has 11″.
  • The big winners seem to be Snowbasin/PowMow, their gauges show 1.5″ SWE (Snow water equivalent, which at 15:1 ratios, is almost 2 feet just since yesterday morning.

So plenty of snow to go around.  If you are going into the backcountry today, be careful.  There is a pretty weak layer of snow under all this new snow that could make for some dangerous conditions.

As for the upcoming forecast, we’ll be dry for the next two days or so.  A moist Pacific zonal flow will develop from late Tuesday through the end of the week that will bring us a chance for occasional high elevation snowfall — though nothing major.  Friday into the weekend, a Low pressure system will slowly work its way through Arizona to our south.  This will bring some rain and mountain snow to Southern Utah.  But we should stay mostly dry over the weekend up in Northern Utah.

WSF