Happy Veterans Day! Changes still coming!

Monday, November 11, 2013 at 7:04 am

Opening weekend at Brighton/Solitude was a success.  Hopefully many of you were able to make your first lift-serviced turns of the season.

Today through Wednesday will be status quo with continued mild weather.  There is a disturbance that is attempting to break through the ridge over the next couple days.  This will likely be sheared apart as it does so — all we’ll see is a few clouds on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  However, as the ridge breaks down things start to change as we head into Thursday.

Upstream amplification will turn our flow more northerly on Thursday.  On Thursday night into Friday, a weak wave will pass over northern Utah with a mostly dry cold front.  This will act to continue our cool down but will likely only bring a slight chance for light snow in the northern mountains of Utah.

Things get more interesting on Saturday.  Models diverge on the strength and timing of the next wave.  GFS operational run has the system losing most of its energy by the time it arrives late on Saturday.  This would likely give us just a chance for a few light snow showers.  The EC, however, brings the system through more vigorously on Sunday.  This solution would have the potential to bring accumulating snow to the Wasatch.  Due to it’s consistency, it’s recent performance relative to the GFS, and the upstream amplification of the jet, I’m inclined to go with the EC.  Several GFS ensembles are also starting to side with the EC this morning, which is a good sign.

Only time will tell if my instincts are correct,  What is for sure is that we will see much colder temperatures later this week and this weekend.  That will allow for round-the-clock snowmaking at area resorts which will be hugely beneficial to getting/staying open.  Hopefully Mother Nature will also deliver some of the natural stuff as well.


P.S.  We spend all winter hoping for inclement weather, but sometimes we forget how powerful nature can be when it hits in full force in places that are unprepared.  Typhoon Haiyan has likely claimed thousands of lives (current estimates around 10,000).  But the food and water shortages could claim thousands more.  Please consider donating to Filipino aid and keep the people of that country in your thoughts, they face a tough road ahead.

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  • james

    Wsf.. look at latest model runs… not good!!

  • Steve

    But what about Euro? is a bit discouraging though. Always seems to be at least 10 days out. Like the end of the rainbow. Just can never quite get there. However, probably best to try to stay optimistic. A surprise on the good side will come eventually.

    • You’re right, Steve. That’s why I made the rainbow analogy. Just can’t ever seem to get there. The Euro is still much deeper, stronger with the Sunday system than the GFS, but the 12z run wasn’t quite as deep as previous runs so I’m concerned it is trending toward the GFS. Time will tell . . . At least it will get colder!

  • James

    This is getting scary… its possible we may not get any significant snow in november.. al gore was right.. snow is over

  • Steve

    The 6-14 day forecast from Climate Prediction Center don’t give me a warm fuzzy feeling either. Oh well. Nothing we can do and I doubt this has anything to do with Al Gore.