The eve of the new season

Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 7:10 am

Another day with nothing settled in the models.  Poor model to model and run to run consistency has left Wx forecasters everywhere scratching their heads.

What we do know is that we will be brushed by a system tonight and early tomorrow in Northern Utah.  Expect plenty of clouds today thru opening day at Solitude and Brighton.  There may even bee a few snow showers in the mountains from SLC north to the Idaho border, but we are not expect much in the way of accumulations.

After Friday we clear out and warm up.  It looks like we’ll be warm and dry for at least 5 days to a week.  After the middle of next week,  a cool northwest flow may develop with embedded pieces of energy.  GFS has shown this for the past three runs and the GEM also shows this pattern somewhat.  EC showed this in one run yesterday, but is now bouncing around again.

As for our potential for strong storms, that looks all but dead now.  What it has proven is that despite huge improvements in model forecasting over the past 10 years, there is still a long way to go.  Every major global models showed a series of strong storms impacting the central west coast of the U.S. and moving inland toward us.  Over the past  5 days, this idea has totally died with the storms being replaced by full on ridging.  It’s a disappointment for us, but a much bigger disappointment for Tahoe and surrounding areas.  If you think our past two winters have been poor, they’ve been great compared to the Sierras who desperately need the moisture.  (Remember the fire in Yosemite this summer?)   Hopefully in the next few days, all models will find common ground again and it will be a favorable solution for us.  They need to redeem themselves after this fiasco.  We’ll keep you updated . . .


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