Patience Needed.

Wednesday, November 6, 2013 at 6:29 am

Not much new to talk about.  Dry conditions will prevail for the next few days.  Models have reached a consensus on the storm for Friday and they keep it north of Utah with only a few clouds and breezes for most of the Wasatch.  Areas near the Utah/Idaho border could see a few light showers Thur Night into Friday.

As discussed in many previous posts, all eyes are still on the Pacific.  About five days ago, it looked imminent that the entire west coast would be impacted by a series of strong storms.  Right now, that is very much in doubt.  What changed?  Well, what we were expecting was a strong ridge to develop in the Central pacific, centered at about 160w latitude.  This would send cold, strong storms down into a large Western US trough.  Now, most models set this high pressure’s axis farther west, at about the international dateline.  Like this:


GFS on Monday, Nov 11


Its kind of hard to read if you’re not used to seeing these models, but you can see the massive High at about 175W, then you can see all the systems in the Eastern Pacific just off the west coast.   These system’s get “hung up” off the coast. In an ideal situation, everything would be shifted eastward and the trough center would be over land rather than water.

Luckily, most models’ long range forecasts do show the ridge becoming less amplified and progressing a bit farther east in the long term.  This is what today’s 06z GFS looked like for Nov 20:

GFS for November 20

GFS for November 20

You can see the high pressure in the Pacific is flatter and farther east, thus allowing precip to progress better into the West Coast.  That is what is still giving meteorologists hope that this pattern will still develop, it’s just delayed a bit.  

For right now, it looks mostly dry and relatively warm through the weekend into early next week.  Very little confidence beyond about Tuesday of next week.  I urge patience, this pattern change is taking a long time to come to fruition, but when it does, you’ll likely be happy you waited.


P.S.  Solitude Mountain Resort is Opening on Friday.  My understanding is they’ll have 4 groomed runs and three lifts.   Season is almost here!



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5 thoughts on “Patience Needed.

  1. Steve

    I have to admit, it’s not too difficult to get a bit discouraged. The models giveth, but they are pretty good at taking away as well. They looked so awesome recently, but now not so great. Not nothing, but not as many signs as i would like of direct hits. But I’m less than an amatuer at this so welcome your more learned perspective. Doesn’t look like anything for a while, and the models have been shown to be less than accurate too far out, so there is always hope. Thanks for your updates.

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