Chasing A Pot of Gold

Tuesday, November 5, 2013 at 6:56 am

Disorganized lake effect bands formed overnight east and southeast of the GSL, not really enough to bring much more than an inch or two of snow.



You can see the bands just starting to weaken and dissipate this morning.  Don’t be surprised if you drive through some snow this morning if you live or work in Weber, Davis, or north Salt Lake Counties.

Clearing skies today will begin a dry period for Utah.  The main storm track will be to our north over the next few days.  Southern Utah should be relatively warm and clear while northern Utah gets grazed by a system or two which leads to occasional clouds and a slight chance for showers.

The next system of note moves into through to our north on Friday.  The GFS and the EC show significant spread for this system.  The EC takes the systems well north of the area and only drags a weak dry cool front though far northern Utah.  The GFS shows the system moving far enough south to give Northern Utah a decent shot at accumulating snowfall.  GEM and NAM models splits the difference with just a few light showers in far northern Utah.   Until the models reach some kind of agreement, we’ll just compromise and say there is a chance for a few showers in Northern Utah on Friday.

The weekend looks dry and fairly warm in all models.  HUGE differences in models exist for early next week.  This time yesterday, all models agreed on a strong system for approximately Tuesday of next week.  However, starting with the 12z run yesterday, the Euro has gone ridge city with the system being forced up into BC.  I thought this made no sense, but now more GFS ensembles are jumping on board this idea . . .  Only time will tell which model has it right.

The good news is that all major models still show strong storms moving in around mid-month.  The MJO is progressing now through very favorable phases, the PNA is diving sharply negative (good news),  and the long range forecast models are still calling for persistent troughing along the west coast.  So there is a lot on paper to be excited about.  However, powder skiing doesn’t happen on paper, so it would be nice if we could actually get these large storms sooner rather than later.  Right now it feels like we are chasing the end of a rainbow — every time we get close, the pot of gold gets farther away.  Keep the faith and patience!  If this morning’s Operational GFS verifies, next week could be very snowy!


This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by .
  • Steve

    Yikes! The 12Z really makes it later. You’re right it’s like chasing that pot of gold. always just out of sight.

    • Definitely annoying. EC had been outperforming the GFS by leaps and bounds this season so far. Keep the faith, as I said, there are a lot of good signs in our favor right now.

  • RockNSnow

    Ya can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometime…