Big change from yesterday! November outlook . . .

Sunday, November 3, 2013 at 8:54 am

Front is moving through, as expected, this morning along the Wasatch and adjacent Wasatch Front.  Snow flakes are flying at all elevations behind the front.  Radar at 8 am looks like this:



The front is moving south relatively quickly and should be through the area quickly.  It’s been snowing for about half an hour in the Cottonwoods.  Solitude looks like this right now:



Remember those tables from last week? All that snow melted with the warm temperatures yesterday, which allows us to start from scratch with estimating amounts.  Again, snow should end by 11 AM, so I don’t think we’ll see anything more than 3″.

Scattered snow showers, primarily in the mountains will continue tonight and tomorrow.  There is still a chance for lake effect or enhanced snowfall but not all the ingredients are there so I doubt it will be much of a factor.

We’ll have a few reinforcing waves of energy over the next few days that could keep showers going at times, but overall, most places will remain dry after today for the next week or so.  Models a few days ago were showing a series of small to medium sized storms this week, however they backed off that idea and now force most of the energy north of the area.  Models still do show large storms moving into the west coast, but now they hold off on doing this until next Monday-Wednesday (November  11-13).   Despite most major models agreeing on this idea, it’s still  a long way out and with recent model performance, there’s no way we can say for sure that this will happen.   The pattern change does have the support of the CFSv2 right now, which shows above average precip anomalies during Week 2 (November 10-16):



Notice the green stretch along the west coast and extending inland into Utah.  This trend continues for both Week 3 and Week 4:



Long range forecasting is far from an exact science, but let’s hope this pans out and we have a strong November that builds a good base for the season.

Think Snow!


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