A model mess

Saturday, November 2, 2013 at 9:46 am

Saturday evening update:

Models have been coming in drier with the front tomorrow morning.  I’m going to have to downgrade totals from 2-4″ to 1-3″ for the mountains tomorrow.  It wasn’t a huge amount to begin with so it’s not a big deal, and its our 6th storm of the season and the first one we’ve had to downgrade forecasted accumulations so can’t complain too much.

Unfortunately, the models have also continued today to back track on the idea of a good storm for later this week.  They now split the system well off the coast with most energy going either to our north or south.    A stronger storm still possible for early in week 2 (November 11-12).  We likely will still get our pattern change to snowy weather, we might just have to wait a little bit longer than it was looking like a few days ago.


Cold and snow return tomorrow to Northern Utah.  However, this is a quick moving front so expect just a quick burst of snow in the morning.  Right now, I’m only expecting 2-4″ in the mountains with a trace in the valleys.  Snow showers will continue at times in the higher terrain late Sunday through Monday night that could bring totals to 3-6″ .  Overall, just a weak but cold storm.   There is still a possibility for lake effect SE of the GSL, so that will have to be watched.

Next week has turned into a mess.  The last few days it looked like we were heading for an active and snowy pattern.  Now, the models can’t decide what will happen.  Currently each model has a different idea with more glancing blows than direct hits.   All we can say for sure is it will be cool next week with a chance for mountain snow at times.

Hopefully the models with re-find some consensus in the 5-10 day range . . . We will update when they do.


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