Winding down . . .

Wednesday, October 30, 2013 at 7:37 am

Scattered snow showers will continue through today in the mountains, especially southeast of the GSL where they are getting a bit of lake enhancement.  Generally speaking, we saw a more active than expected beginning to this system with a less active than anticipated end.  System seemed to lose a lot of its moisture as it spinned in central Nevada yesterday.  As the Low moved through Utah last night, there just wasn’t much left to generate showers.  Still, most of the Wasatch saw 6-12″ above 7,000 ft, which is slightly better than the 5-10″ that we forecasted on Monday morning.

Cool, but generally dry weather will prevail through the end of the week.  A warm up this weekend with mostly sunny skies.  Next front moves in on Sunday with a reinforcing wave on Monday.  This will usher in even colder air but seems to be lacking moisture.  There may be a chance for lake effect snowfall, but aside from that it looks to bring only light accumulations to the Wasatch.

Models are struggling a bit with the forecast after that, but all suggest a generally active pattern with troughs digging into the Western U.S.  as we head into the second week of November.

The MJO is strengthening right now and moving into phase 8 where it is progged to propagate into Phase 1.  This adds to the belief that we’ll see troughing in the West.  Generally speaking, phases 8, 1, and 2 are favorable for higher than normal precip in Utah.



If you’re model watching right now and discouraged by the inconsistencies in the long-range.  I suggest looking at ensemble spaghetti plots rather than the operational runs.   The models are clearly struggling with individual impulses, but the spaghetti plots do a good job of showing a general trend toward storms.


P.S. There were some reports of slides yesterday.  If you are planning to do any early season hiking/touring, please be careful.  North facing aspects that did not completely melt off the old snow are particularly susceptible.  Some areas also received a layer of graupel snow that is notoriously weak.

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