There is a lot to talk about this morning. The much advertised Low pressure system is now dropping south toward the Great Basin. This low should settle into Central Nevada tomorrow morning.
On Monday, a southerly flow will develop due to Utah’s location east of the circulation. Moisture should start to fill in during the day with rain showers and mountain snow developing during the afternoon. Snow levels should start out high, close to 8,000 feet. The areas that should do well on Monday evening will be those favored by a southerly flow. This includes places like Sundance and the Uintas (not so much the Cottonwoods or PC).
Monday night into Tuesday, the Low will start moving eastward. It looks like the center of circulation will track through central Utah. This will likely slowly shift the flow from southerly to easterly. An easterly flow will promote wrap around precip that may favor areas along the Wasatch Back (Park City). As the low moves into Utah, so too does the cold air, snow levels will drop Monday night down to around 5-6K feet. Even high bench locations could see some flakes along the Wasatch Front.
On Tuesday night into Wednesday, wrap around precipitation will continue but could develop a more northerly, and eventually northwesterly, component as the Low tracks to our east. This is when the Cottonwoods could finally be favored. However, by this time moisture will likely be dwindling.
During the day Wednesday, we should start to clear out, but mountain location will likely still see snow showers. Snow levels by this time will be near most valley floors, however valley accumulations would be minimal.
Overall, I think we can broadbrush the Wasatch with 5-10″ of snow above 7,000 feet, this includes places like Snowbasin/PowMow/Cottonwoods/PC. However, this pattern is notorious for generating locally high amounts in places favored by persistent southerly flows. Certain areas of the Wasatch Back and Uintas could be in the 10-16″ range.
Here is an image from the US Forest Service’s High Uinta webcam from yesterday morning:
It’ll be fun to see what this looks like later this week.
A dry northwesterly flow will take us through the end of the week and into the weekend. Models continue to show an active storm track developing in the PNW. GFS suggests this storm track will eventually drop south into Northern California and through the Great Basin. This is a long way out and there are still many questions as to how progressive these storms will be, but it looks promising that we could see a snowy pattern developing during the first week or two of November.
As always, we’ll let you know the latest . . .