Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 8:21 am

Models are finally reaching some semblance of  a consensus.  As is often the case, they have found a bit of a compromise.  The Euro has moved a little farther east and the GFS has moved farther west.  Both now have the Low pressure center dropping into the central Great Basin on Monday before slowly moving east into Utah on Tuesday.   This means that the onset of precipitation likely won’t be until late in the day on Monday.  It also means that the Low will modify before it moves into Utah, which means snow levels will be between 5-6K feet (7-8K feet for S. Utah) for most of the event.

Snow will continue off and on in the Wasatch from Monday night through Wednesday.  While it doesn’t appear like there will be any particularly prolonged periods of heavy snow, this is a long duration event in which amounts could slowly pile up.  Here is the NWS icon forecast for the high Wasatch:



What this illustrates is the long duration of the event.  I’m thinking that snow will start Monday evening.  If we can average 2-4″ during each time period (12-hours) from Monday night – Tuesday night, then by the time Wednesday rolls around, we’ll have 6-12″ of fresh snow.

It will be interesting to watch as this storm unfolds, there could be periods where certain aspects are favored by different directional flows as the Low circulation passes through Utah.

Later next week, we dry out again… Last two runs of the GFS have showed the storm track dropping into the PNW again, possibly dropping farther south with time.  The Euro keeps the same storm track farther north into British Columbia while bringing another cut-off Low off the West Coast.  Time will tell . . .

Enjoy the warm dry weekend and subsequent return to winter!


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One thought on “Consensus

  1. Scot Chipman

    I agree with 6-12″ with this storm with the Cottonwoods on the low end. The problem with this storm for the Cottonwoods is the favorable northwest flow does not kick in until Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, until then areas that do well in a southerly flow will do better and could see 8-14″.

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