Battle of the Models

Friday, October 25, 2013 at 7:55 am

Not too many changes from yesterday’s discussion.  All models still indicate colder, snowier weather moving into the Great Basin early next week.  GFS drops the cold core into the Eastern Great Basin, closer to Utah.  This would translate to colder temperatures and snow moving into the Wasatch on Monday.  Here is a map of the cold core location in the GFS at 00z Tuesday (about 5pm Monday local time).



Conversely, the Euro looks like this:



As you can see, the Euro is much farther west at the same time as the GFS.  This is leading to a lot of uncertainty.  In the Euro’s solution, this low would eventually start tracking east through Utah on Tuesday.  But its temps would likely modify somewhat before that (i.e. not as cold).  It may also track more through Southern Utah than northern Utah.

Overall, the GFS would be colder and likely bring a better chance for solid accumulations late Monday into Tuesday.  The Euro would be more of a Tuesday into Wednesday event and may not be a direct hit with higher snow levels.  Right now I’m hoping for the GFS solution to verify. The good news is that the NAM is getting within range and it looks to be farther east and closer to the GFS.

I thought I would be able to put out an accumulation forecast today, but with so much disagreement still, it would be premature to do so.   Right now, accumulations in the high Wasatch could be anywhere from an inch to a foot.

Stay tuned . . .


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