Warm and dry weekend, Cold (and snowy?) start to next week.

Thursday, October 24, 2013 at 7:53 am

Our long run of quiet Fall weather will finally be interrupted, but not until after this weekend.  So enjoy a beautiful and warm Saturday and Sunday.

Weather will turn cold with mountain snow for Monday and Tuesday.  A system will be dropping into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Monday.  Operational GFS has been fairly consistent.  It would bring a cold system with a decently sharp cold front into the area on Monday, lasting into Tuesday morning.  The system would lack moisture but could still bring moderate accumulations.  The Euro has been flip flopping, it was farther west than the GFS on Tuesday, then farther east on Wednesday, now it is farther west again.  It drops a closed Low south from Eastern Oregon into the western Great Basin before eventually moving through southern Utah.  Euro would give a longer duration event, but it would be less of a direct hit.  Normally, with the inconsistency in the European Model, I would side with the GFS and the GEM.  However, some GFS ensembles are supporting the Euro’s idea, so it is possible this could be a trend.  We will have to take a close look at the 12z suite of models to see.

So what we do know:  It will get much colder on Monday and Tuesday with some snow in the air.  The question is how much.  At this time, accumulations could be anywhere in a large range in the Wasatch depending on the track of this storm.  So we’ll give the models one more day before we make a forecast for amounts.

Looks like the storm will be moving out of the area middle of next week.  Models generally keep us dry but differ on the strength of the ridge overhead.   Plenty of uncertainty beyond day 7 so there’s no need to tackle that quite yet.

Enjoy the weekend before the cold returns!


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