Encouraging signs

Tuesday, October 22, 2013 at 8:34 am

If you read yesterday’s discussion, you likely read this paragraph:

The next event of any note in the models will be a system dropping into the Northern Rockies early next week.  It looks like most of the energy will pass to our east, but Utah will be clipped with some colder air and a chance for a few showers, especially in the Uintas, next Monday/Tuesday.  There is always a chance the models could trend farther west with this feature and give us a more widespread shot at snowfall.

Well, models have continued the trend and come into good agreement with regards to bringing us our first storm in a while late Sunday into Monday and possibly Tuesday.  This is as early as we could have possibly hoped for snow with how dominant the ridge currently is.  Rather than the ridge breaking down, it is just going to retrograde westward and allow energy to drop into the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin.  Too early to tell if this is a harbinger of things to come, or just a “one and done” storm before the ridge moves back over the area.

GFS moves the system through relatively quickly with most of the energy to our east over the Uintas and Northern Colorado.  The Euro closes the low off over Idaho where it stalls for several days.  GFS has more support from other models and the European model doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, but sometimes it is the first model to pick up on things … so who knows?  At worst, it looks like we’ll see cooler temps for Monday-Wednesday (28th-30th) of next week with a few mountain snow showers.  At best, we could get some decent accumulations.  Let’s give the models a couple more days to figure out the details before we start predicting amounts.

As I mentioned before, this is about as good of a scenario as we could have hoped for as our chances of getting anything before the end of the month looked bleak just a couple days ago.  We’ll keep you updated . . .


This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by .