Model watching . . .

Friday, October 18, 2013 at 7:45 am

No changes to the going forecast — quiet weather will dominate the area through next week with temperatures near normal.   Next chance for a storm will be at the end of the month.

Rex Block is progged to develop this week in the Eastern Pacific.  A Rex Block is defined as an area of high pressure that sits above an area of low pressure.  These are often very stubborn and difficult to break down.  Models have struggled with this pattern lately, but there has been a consistent idea of retrogression of the ridge during the last few days of October that would allow a system or two to sneak into the Great Basin and Northern Utah.

With the government no longer “shutdown”, CFSv2 is back up for weekly outlooks, which helps us a bit in long-range forecasting.  Unfortunately, it shows drier-than-normal weather persisting well into November.  If it’s any consolation, I don’t find the CFSv2 to be very reliable.

For right now, it’s best to enjoy the beautiful Fall weather, do your snow summoning rituals, and hope that Mother Nature turns on the valves in November.


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2 thoughts on “Model watching . . .

  1. Steve

    The gfs is certainly not encouraging. But better to have this pattern now than later in November. But will do snow dance.

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