If this were mid-winter, I might consider driving down to Brian Head for the skiing tomorrow. The low pressure system we’ve been talking about so much in the last few discussions is now tracking through central California, it will continue to drop south before it is expected to head east. I still get the feeling it will track more through Arizona than Utah. Either way, Southern Utah will feel the brunt of this storm with 4-8″ likely with up to a foot in favored locations above 9,000 ft.
The Wasatch does notoriously poor in these type of storms. The exception is when we can get good wrap-around precip in a southeastern flow that can dump on the Wasatch Back. Often Sundance’s best powder days come in this type of pattern. I don’t expect much more than a few inches at best for the mountains of Northern Utah with the exception of Uintas, who could see a bit more.
Precip will pick up in Southern Utah this afternoon and continue through the day on Thursday. N. Utah will see showers begin early Thursday morning and continue scattered throughout the day. A moist westerly flow could keep light showers going in the Wasatch Thurs night and Friday.
Saturday will be a bit of a break before the next system drops into the area on Sunday. GFS and Euro now in line for this storm with it effecting mostly just the northern half of Utah. It’s a bit cooler as well with 700mb temps around -6C so snow levels will be around bench level. Again, it’s not a major system by any means, but should add a few more inches to the Wasatch.
Next week is a big question mark, but the latest trends have been to keep a cut-off low well off the Pacific coast and keep us dry. Model agreement and consistency beyond 5 days has been awful lately and looking at individual ensembles hasn’t really been helping, so who knows?
Still some suggestion of the storm door opening more around the 20-25 of October. It’s a long way out, but something we’ll have to watch.