October is usually a transition month where we see a storm or two, but also see long stretches of summer-like dry weather as well. The month is still young, but so far we keep seeing storm system after storm system affecting the area and that looks likely to continue for at least the next week. It’s hard to get “major” storms in October however, so don’t expect to be skiing waist deep pow quite yet.
The first system to impact the area with precipitation is currently dropping down the west coast. This system will stall for a bit in Southern Nevada before ejecting east through Southern Utah. Again, this is a cut-off Low, and cut-offs often have a mind of their own so the forecast is by no means set in stone. Southern Utah will see valley rain with snow above 8,000 ft begin on Wednesday and continuing off and on through the day on Thursday. Places like Brian Head and Eagle Point could see up to a foot of snow! The Wasatch will see showers more scattered in nature on Thursday with the snow level around 6,500 ft or so. A secondary wave will move through on Friday to continue the showers. Overall, I don’t expect much more than a few inches. There is a threat of some decent wrap-around precip hitting the Wasatch Back and Uintas late on Thursday as well.
Saturday will be a break day. Both GFS and EC have another system for Sunday but differ on the details. EC forms another Great Basin cut-off low, whereas the GFS drops a front mostly to our east that just grazes the area. Either way, cool temps and a chances for more showers is likely for Sunday.
Looks like we see another break early next week before another potential system impacts the area middle of next work week. Details on that are very vague at this time. There is some suggestion of retrogression of the eastern pacific high pressure beyond mid-month. This could open the door for larger storms.
Screaming message is that active weather will continue. For those of you worried about early season snow destabilizing the snowpack, it’s a real risk if one of these storms delivers more snow than expected. If we keep seeing cool temps and snow going through the rest of October, we should be fine. The real risk is if we have an extended break in the action and snow is left to “rot” for a few weeks. Let’s hope the storm train carries us right on up to opening day!