Monday, October 7, 2013 at 6:19 am

Not too much change from yesterday’s discussion.  Warm and sunny today.  A dry cold front will move through tonight and cool us off by about 10 degrees tomorrow.

Cut-off Low pressure system will dive into western then southern Great Basin on Wednesday, then slowly move east through Southern Utah.  As mentioned yesterday, these cut-offs often move farther south than models forecast so we’ll have to watch it.  Southern Utah should see their first significant snowfall above 8,000 ft.

On Thursday, a moist northwest flow will develop behind the trough and create orographic showers in the Wasatch.  Snow levels should be around 6,500 ft with several inches possible above that level.  A trailing piece of energy should keep showers going on Friday.

GFS joined the Euro this morning in showing another, weaker system clipping the area on Sunday.  This doesn’t look to be a major snow maker for the region, but it will serve to keep temperatures cool with perhaps a few showers.

Overall, after a few sunny and warmer days, the second half of this week will be cool and unsettled.

A quick look at the long range outlook… CFSv2 has been consistent now in showing above average December-February (heart of winter) precip anomalies for California, stretching east into the Great Basin and Utah.  A product of a weak El Nino?  Perhaps.  Good sign? Probably.  Check it out!




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