Waiting patiently . . .

Thursday, October 3, 2013 at 7:56 am

This storm so far is just kinda spinning it wheels, quite literally, without too much to show for it just yet.  Initial cold front moved through yesterday evening bringing a brief period of mostly rain to the Wasatch and Wasatch Front.  A secondary jet streak moved through early this morning and brought another brief period of rain to the region and some high elevation snow.  Here is a quick look at Hidden Peak at Snowbird this morning showing just a dusting of snow so far:



Today, expect scattered valley rain showers and mountain snow (above 7,000 ft) to continue with little in the way of accumulation.  There should be plenty of breaks and even sunshine during the day.

Tonight, the cold core of the storm drops from its current location in SW Montana down into Northern Utah/SW Wyoming.  This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air as well as a better chance for orographic snowfall.  Snow levels drop to near valley floors.  A lake effect band of snow is still definitely possible south/southeast of the GSL.  These showers will continue into tomorrow and gradually clear out through the day.

I’m not feeling as confident as I was yesterday with the strength/track of the Low pressure center.  Together with the fact that we saw almost nothing out of the front last night, I’m going to downgrade the overall snowfall totals from 3-6″ to 1-4″.  The wildcard, of course, is lake effect.  If one area gets trapped under a lake effect band tonight (Oquirrhs/Cottonwoods),  then they could see significantly more snow.

In all honesty, it’s probably best this time of year that we don’t see significant accumulations.  As some have pointed out,  in years where we have seen 1+ feet of snow in early October, it has often led to a weak or “rotten” base layer later in the season which increases avalanche danger.  Best case scenario is that we get a manageable amount of snow that melts off now before the large storms start hitting later this month into November.

Models continue to struggle with next week, but for now it doesn’t look like any major storms.  Just typical Fall-like weather . . .


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